Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Extremism in Defense of Fantasy

Barry Goldwater famously said, “extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.”  Maybe so, but extremism in the defense of fantasy is a tougher sell.

-- Dave Hawkins, NRDC Director of Climate Programs

In this week's Sift:

  • Hate Addiction and the Republican Future. Anti-Hispanic and anti-gay rhetoric is like crystal meth: It raises a lot of short-term energy, but there's no future in it. Some Republicans understand this, while others just want to keep cranking.
  • Private Sector Covert Ops. It's not just bad fiction any more: Once you privatize CIA-type spooks, their specialized services become available to Bank of America and the Chamber of Commerce, in case they want to target Think Progress or Glenn Greenwald.
  • Then They Came for the Trade Unionists. New Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker doesn't just want to cut state workers' benefits, he wants to take away their rights.
  • Lies and Opinions. Non-journalists have trouble understanding why Anderson Cooper took so much criticism for accurately identifying the Mubarak regime's false statements as "lies". A theory from Jay Rosen and Daniel Hallin explains the unwritten code he violated.
  • Short Notes. A career devoted to helping the uptrodden. Mitt rewrites his autobiography. A crime-ridden city lays off half its police. Cairo makes Bob Herbert wonder about democracy in America. And more.


Hate Addiction and the Republican Future

Simple demographics tells you that in the long run an American political movement doesn't want to be anti-Hispanic or anti-gay.

The Hispanic segment of the population is 15.8% and growing, and is already a major force in Southwestern and Southern states that a Republican presidential candidate needs to carry. Bush in 2004 won and McCain in 2008 lost the 46 electoral votes of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida, largely due to the Hispanic vote, which simultaneously grew and shifted Democratic. In 2012, those states will have 49 votes. Texas (38 more electoral votes and growing) is securely Republican for now, but is projected to have a Hispanic majority by 2040.

Opposition to gay rights is concentrated among the elderly and getting moreso every year. If only people under 30 could vote, same-sex marriage would pass in 38 states, including places like Nebraska and West Virginia. On the other hand, even in liberal Massachusetts and Vermont, no more than 1/3 of those over 65 support it. Year-in, year-out, a lot of elderly Americans die and a lot of teen-agers register to vote. If anti-gay is not already a losing position, it soon will be.

For the Republican Party, nativism and homophobia are like crystal meth: They produce fabulous short-term boosts to the Party's metabolism, but wiser heads -- it's scary when George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are your wiser heads -- look down the road and say, "We've got to get off of this stuff."

But kicking the habit is easier said than done.

Nativism. Enlarged GOP majorities in 15 legislatures are pushing Arizona-style immigration laws -- sometimes to the dismay of their demographically aware Republican governors. California Republican strategist Adam Mendelsohn points out the ominous implication of one of the few Republican failures of 2010:

I really think that California serves as a very important case study in what happens when Republicans alienate Latinos with aggressive rhetoric. We lost every statewide election because we lost Latino voters.

According to the same article from the San Diego Immigrant Rights Consortium:

Conservative Hispanic Christian leaders said talking about illegal-immigrant children as if they’re criminals turns off their conservative congregations, driving them away from what should be a natural alliance with the GOP on other social issues such as opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage.

Homophobia. This week's Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) conference was an early salvo in what I expect to be a long-term struggle.

GOProud is a conservative pro-gay-rights organization that participated in CPAC. A boycott led by folks like Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council failed to get them thrown out, probably because GOProud's board includes conservative heavyweights like Andrew Breitbart and Grover Norquist.

So far the results are a draw: The new chair of the American Conservative Union, which organizes CPAC, says "its' going to be difficult to continue the relationship" with GOProud. But in a straw poll of CPAC attendees, 62% supported the decision to include them. (An asterisk there: To the extent that the boycott had any effect, which is questionable given that attendance was up, it would have skewed the straw poll.)

Rather than tip-toe in and thank everyone for their tolerance, GOProud co-founder Christopher Barron whacked the hornets' nest like this:

What we're doing is separating the people who don't agree with the left-wing agenda from the real bigots. You can be against ENDA and hate crimes and federal safe schools legislation and not be a bigot. [But] if you're Tony Perkins, you're a bigot. You're against all of that stuff not because of any federalist reasons, but actually because you're just a nasty, anti-gay bigot.

Barron's "attack against long time solid conservatives" set off Redstate.com founder (and CNN commentator) Erick Erickson, who roundly denounced GOProud. The 200+ comments on his post mostly agree with him, but there are some interesting threads that demonstrate how this discussion plays out on the Right. Ender asks, "how does being for gay marriage preclude someone from being a firm free-market capitalist, supporting limited government, lower taxes and strong national defense?" And jpmulhern replies:

As a society’s morality is less and less capable of holding it together, political power will fill the void. Any efforts to maintain a limited government will be futile once the moral foundation that makes such government possible disappears. … You have joined the side that wants to see the West fall, which is not where any conservative should find himself.

It will be interesting to see how similar discussions progress over time, because jpmulhern's just-so-story logic, devoid of any examples or data -- Massachusetts and Canada have had same-sex marriage for years without any apparent effect on social order -- is widespread on the Right. People who have to fight against it may come to question the whole right-wing agenda.


Bill Kristol's criticism of Glenn Beck's grand Egyptian conspiracy theory has sparked an old-fashioned bar fight among conservatives. Media Matters provides a scorecard, with links to the major bottle-smashers and chair-swingers. Find a safe place with a good view and pass the popcorn. Even Beck's Fox News colleague Bill O'Reilly isn't buying it.



Private Sector Covert Ops

I still haven't wrapped my mind about this, so I'll probably come back to it next week. But I'm pretty sure it's the most important story sailing under the radar: Private security firms that have extensive government contacts and contracts have been pitching proposals to Bank of America, the Chamber of Commerce, and God knows who else to run "information operations" against their enemies. Not rival corporations: unions and liberal blogs.

It gets complicated because there are conflicts of interest in the reporting path: We know all this by way of WikiLeaks and a related group of hackers called Anonymous. But WikiLeaks is itself one of the targeted enemies. And here, ThinkProgress covers a Chamber of Commerce plan to attack (among others) ThinkProgress:

ThinkProgress has learned that a law firm representing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the big business trade association representing ExxonMobil, AIG, and other major international corporations, is working with set of “private security” companies and lobbying firms to undermine their political opponents, including ThinkProgress, with a surreptitious sabotage campaign.

Assuming this is accurate, we're not talking about normal public-relations stuff. The plans call for discrediting liberal organizations by doing things like creating fake documents that can be leaked to them and then exposed as fakes after the organization runs the story. (Doesn't that sound like what happened to Dan Rather?)

Plans also target journalists who support WikiLeaks (most notably Glenn Greenwald of Salon), saying "these are established professionals that have a liberal bent, but ultimately most of them if pushed will choose professional preservation over cause." The Tech Herald interviewed Glenn, who called the report "creepy and disturbing". In his own column, Greenwald wrote:

My initial reaction to all of this was to scoff at its absurdity. … But after learning a lot more over the last couple of days, I now take this more seriously -- not in terms of my involvement but the broader implications this story highlights.  For one thing, it turns out that the firms involved here are large, legitimate and serious, and do substantial amounts of work for both the U.S. Government and the nation's largest private corporations

I'm still fuzzy on lots of this, like how they planned to threaten Glenn's "career preservation". Also:  Is this is a case of private-sector spooks trying to scare up business, or corporate bigwigs soliciting proposals for covert ops? Maybe by next week I'll have a clearer picture.



Then They Came For the Trade Unionists

Governor Scott Walker's plan to balance Wisconsin's budget is to get rid of public-employee unions. He doesn't propose outlawing the unions altogether, but under his proposal they lose their power to negotiate over anything but base pay, or to demand base-pay increases higher than inflation. So basically the unions can exist, but it's illegal for them to do anything meaningful.

If workers get tired of belonging to do-nothing unions, they can just stop paying their dues, and Walker's proposal mandates annual elections to dis-establish the union.

And by the way, state workers will have to pay more for their pensions and healthcare.

The newly-elected Walker has not negotiated with the unions about any of this, and is prepared to call out the National Guard if they strike. WisPolitics.com reports:

"If you're going to negotiate and you're going to do it in good faith, you're going to have to have something to offer,” Walker said. “The state's broke. Local governments are broke. They don't have anything to offer."

It's one thing to drive a hard bargain. A lot of states have seen revenue drop and expenses increase in the recession, so you would expect them to take a hard line in contract negotiations. But this is something else. This isn't just money, it's taking workers' rights away. And not just until the economy gets better. Permanently.

Who voted for that? What candidate said, "Vote for me. I'll take your collective-bargaining rights away."?

And speaking of revenue drops, Walker has already signed tax cuts that increase the Wisconsin deficit by $117 million over the next two years. Budget-balancing spending cuts in education and Medicaid are expected when Walker's complete budget comes out -- because it makes so much sense to take money from kids and sick people so that you can give it back to corporations.


The title of this section comes from the famous reflection of German Pastor Martin Niemöller on his experience under the Nazis. Glenn Beck has been misquoting this, and popular culture is in danger of losing the original version. Beck says, "First they came for the Jews, …"

But that's not it at all. It really goes: "First they came for the communists … then they came for the trade unionists". Then they come for the Jews and eventually Niemöller himself.

But Beck can't quote it the way it's written, because he's right at the end of an attack on -- you guessed it! -- union leader Andy Stern, "communist" Van Jones, and "Marxist" Jim Wallis. Naturally, it wasn't long before he started going after Jews like George Soros.

Here's a somewhat larger exposition of the pattern Niemöller was pointing to: First they demonize somebody, then they take those people's rights away, and then they demonize somebody else. Over the last few years a lot of effort has gone into demonizing government workers and their unions, to the extent that even private-sector union members may not identify with the "bureaucrats" and "paper-pushers" any more. But once government workers' rights are gone, the demonization machine can move on to focus on somebody else.

But not you, of course. You could never be demonized.

There's a lesson here, and it's a very old lesson: People who work for a living need to stick together. When the corporate media tries to raise your envy at some other group of workers who "make too much money", stop and think it through. It's really the corporations and financiers who make too much money. They like nothing better than for working people to forget about them and squabble with each other instead.

So when you hear that such-and-such workers get some amazing pension, the right question isn't "Who do they think they are?" it's "Why can't I have a pension like that?" There's probably no reason, other than fat cats maneuvering to keep the money for themselves.



Lies and Opinions

The LA Times' Big Picture blog seemed taken aback that CNN's Anderson Cooper repeatedly used the words "lie" and "lying" to describe what the Mubarak regime was doing in its final days. Big Picture noted "Cooper's pronounced shift toward more opinion-making" and theorized that Cooper "may be trying to adopt the more commentary-heavy approach of [his] higher-rated competitors, Fox and MSNBC."

Here's what's strange about the LA Times' view, which seems widespread in the mainstream media village: If a newsmaker says something provably and obviously false, then "lie" is an accurate and objective report, not "commentary" or "opinion". And indeed, Big Picture seems to realize this at some level, admitting uneasily that "It's hard to find fault with what Cooper had to say" even though it had just spent an entire column finding fault.

Salon's Glenn Greenwald quotes CNN media critic Howard Kurtz similarly asking "should an anchor and correspondent be taking sides on this kind of story?" And then Glenn points out what ought to be obvious:

"Objectivity" is breached not when a journalist calls a lie a "lie," but when they refuse to do so, when they treat lies told by powerful political officials as though they're viable, reasonable interpretations of subjective questions. The very idea that a journalist is engaged in "opinion-making" or is "taking sides" by calling a lie a "lie" is ludicrous; the only "side" such a journalist is taking is with facts, with the truth.

So what's going on here? This isn't a glitch, it's how the media works. But how is that exactly?

Jay Rosen is one of the sharpest observers of journalism around. A couple years ago, he brought back Daniel Hallin's Vietnam War model of media coverage. There are, Hallin/Rosen say, three spheres of coverage. At the core is the Sphere of Consensus, the stuff you can either assume or present without any opposing view. Next is the Sphere of Legitimate Controversy, "of issues recognized as such by the major established actors of the American political process". Finally, there is the Sphere of Deviance, in which the press “plays the role of exposing, condemning, or excluding from the public agenda” the deviant view.

What issues belong where is not something that can be determined objectively. Things move from one sphere to the other through some unconscious cultural process among journalists that the journalists themselves don't really understand.

It's an intrinsic part of what [journalists] do, but not a natural part of how they think or talk about their job. Which means they often do it badly. Their “sphere placement” decisions can be arbitrary, automatic, inflected with fear, or excessively narrow-minded. Worse than that, these decisions are often invisible to the people making them, and so we cannot argue with those people. It’s like trying to complain to your kid’s teacher about the values the child is learning in school when the teacher insists that the school does not teach values.
Deciding what does and does not legitimately belong within the national debate is—no way around it—a political act. And yet a pervasive belief within the press is that journalists do not engage in such action, for to do so would be against their principles. As Len Downie, former editor of the Washington Post once said about why things make the front page, “We think it’s important informationally. We are not allowing ourselves to think politically.” I think he’s right. The press does not permit itself to think politically. But it does engage in political acts. Ergo, it is an unthinking actor, which is not good. When it is criticized for this it will reject the criticism out of hand, which is also not good.

So what Anderson Cooper did "wrong", then, was to decide that what he saw with own eyes was not debatable. He reported the Mubarak lies as if their falsehood was in the Sphere of Consensus. Other journalists were placing them in the Sphere of Legitimate Controversy. But since the sphere-placement decisions are unconscious, the other journalists couldn't put their finger on Cooper's misdeed. So they said he was expressing his opinion. Their criticism didn't make any sense, but it was all they could think of.


Another Rosen observation: "Powerful and visible people can start questioning a consensus belief and move it form the 'everyone agrees' category." Grist's David Roberts points out how this makes the press manipulable by propagandists.

The right has been masterful in manipulating these spheres over the last few decades, dragging things that were once in consensus out into legitimate debate (torture is unacceptable), dragging things that were once legitimate debate into consensus (raising taxes is bad), and -- perhaps most importantly -- preventing things from entering consensus (cigarettes are harmful; climate change is happening). What conservatives have realized is that you shift things between spheres not with clever arguments but with social pressure. They repeat simple messages, loudly and through multiple media, and lean hard on those who question them ("working the refs"). If they need to get a lie pushed into the sphere of legitimate debate, they relentlessly repeat the lie and accuse anyone who identifies it as such as "biased."


Short Notes

The Onion reports that Senator John Cornyn of Texas "was honored for his 20 years of work with the overprivileged Sunday." The article quotes billionaire T. Boone Pickens: "John has dedicated his life and career to helping the uptrodden."


The past doesn't change, but Mitt Romney's autobiography does. It's called No Apology, and the new paperback version demonstrates that there's no need to apologize if you can keep re-spinning.


The slogans always talk about cutting government "waste", but somehow it always comes down to stuff like this: Camden, New Jersey -- which the FBI ranks second to St. Louis in crime -- just laid off half its police force.


Florida Governor Rick Scott's budget cuts per-pupil state education spending by 10% and cuts $3 billion from Medicaid. He also calls for $1 billion in corporate tax cuts and $1.4 billion in property tax cuts. So that's shunting money directly from kids and sick people to corporations and owners of big estates.


The NYT's Bob Herbert responds to the celebrating in Cairo:

John Kerry said that the Egyptian people “have made clear they will settle for nothing less than greater democracy and more economic opportunities.” Americans are being asked to swallow exactly the opposite. In the mad rush to privatization over the past few decades, democracy itself was put up for sale, and the rich were the only ones who could afford it.

And that's pretty much what George Carlin said a few years ago.


Sometimes you have to take a step back to realize just how far things have gone. Paul Krugman points out that Milton Friedman "was a leftist by the standards of today's GOP". Cenk Uygur goes even further, outlining all the ways that Ronald Reagan was more liberal than today's mainstream Democrats.

The Weekly Sift appears every Monday afternoon. If you would like to receive it by email, write to WeeklySift at gmail.com. Or keep track of the Sift by following the Sift's Facebook page.

Friday, February 4, 2011

Subsidized Air

Don't you know that if people could bottle the air they would?  Don't you know that there would be an American Air-bottling Association?  And don't you know that they would allow thousands and millions to die for want of breath, if they could not pay for air? -- Robert Ingersoll, "A Lay Sermon" (1886)

In this week's Sift:

  • Is Health Care Reform in Trouble? When the court cases against the new law were filed, legal commentators thought they were a stunt. Now they're saying it comes down to Justice Kennedy, and who knows what he'll do.
  • Sacrificing Your Life to Their Conscience. "Conscience" laws in a number of states allow medical professionals not to treat you if they disapprove of what you're doing. Now the House is considering H.R. 358, nicknamed the Let Women Die bill.
  • 2012 Republicans Run Late. I know we just had an election and it seems way too early to talk about the next one. But actually it's getting late. By recent standards, Republicans who want to challenge President Obama should be running by now.
  • Socialism Wins the Super Bowl. Ever wonder why you don't hear anything bad about the owner of the Green Bay Packers? There isn't one. Owners, it turns out, are not strictly necessary.
  • Short Notes. President Bush can't travel freely. Glenn Beck jumps the shark. Obama faces off with O'Reilly -- when will Palin face Maddow? Connecting the dots from Cairo to global warming. Arizona has run out of stuff to sell. Plus, Lazy Teenage Superheroes and the Supernatural Registration Authority.


Is Health Care Reform in Trouble?

Slate's Dahlia Lithwick has such a good lead paragraph I'll just steal it:

Articles of faith, as a rule, don't change every few months. And yet, just nine months ago, it was an article of faith among court watchers that President Obama's health care reform plan would be upheld at the Supreme Court by a margin of 7-2 or 8-1. Today it is an equally powerful article of faith that everything rests in the hands of Justice Anthony Kennedy in what will surely be a 5-4 decision. What changed between last March and last Monday?

Let me back up and set the stage. The part of the Affordable Care Act (otherwise known as Healthcare Reform or Obamacare) that is being challenged in court is the insurance mandate: People who don't have adequate health insurance will have to pay extra on their income tax form starting in 2014. If that's interpreted as a new tax, it's clearly constitutional, because the Constitution grants Congress a fairly broad power to tax. But if it's interpreted as a penalty, that's dicier; the constitutionality of the mandate depends on the Commerce Clause: "[The Congress shall have Power] To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian tribes."

The Commerce Clause is the stretchiest part of the Constitution, mostly because the Founders had no idea what a big deal interstate commerce would become. In 1787, just about everything you used was made locally -- or if it wasn't, it could be. Luxuries like tobacco and fine manufactured goods came from other states or overseas, but if you had to do without all that stuff, you could. People grew their own vegetables and had their shoes made by the local cobbler, who got his leather from the local tanner, who bought hides from the local butcher.

Today, living on local products is a major challenge. Just about everything you buy crosses state lines before it comes to you. So the power to regulate interstate commerce is more-or-less the power to regulate everything. And over the years the Supreme Court -- for both liberal and conservative reasons -- has chosen to interpret the Commerce Clause broadly: In Gonzales v. Raich (2005), the Court held that even use of homegrown marijuana could be criminalized under the Commerce Clause:

the regulation is squarely within Congress' commerce power because production of the commodity meant for home consumption, be it wheat or marijuana, has a substantial effect on supply and demand in the national market for that commodity

Justice Scalia concurred with that opinion. So everyone assumed it would be impossible for him to squirm out of that position and deny the same argument for the insurance mandate. Specifically: A person's decision not to purchase health insurance has a substantial effect on the national market for health care.

The Atlantic's Andrew Cohen argues that Scalia will squirm out, and that the signal of this squirming is a dissent that Justices Thomas and Scalia issued January 10th to the Court's refusal to hear another Commerce-Clause case. It's fairly rare to publish dissents to such refusals; typically the Court turns down a case if it sees nothing in the lower court rulings it needs to weigh in on, and that's that. That two of the Court's conservative justices chose to do so, Cohen says, signals that they are ready to overturn the ACA.

Simon Lazarus of the Public Policy Counsel finds similar decisions containing words that Justices Roberts and Kennedy will have to eat before they can overturn the ACA. But at the same time he raises the specter of Bush v Gore. Law may not matter if the conservative judges decide that the outcome is important enough.

I'll let Lithwick wrap up:

If the odds of success for the health care challenges have tilted in recent months, it's not because the suits themselves have somehow gained more merit. It's because the public mood and the tone of the political discourse have shifted dramatically—emboldening some federal judges willing to support a constitutional idea whose time, in their view, has finally come.

There is no one unified ACA court case. So far four federal judges have ruled in four different districts: Two found the individual mandate constitutional, and two didn't. (Several other judges have found procedural reasons for their districts' cases not to go forward.) If you are only aware of the negative rulings, there's a reason: They're the only ones getting media coverage.


DeanDemocrat points out that the mandate is a result of an attempt to compromise with the Republicans and the insurance companies. If we'd gone for a single-payer system, we wouldn't be having this debate.

Building on the Ingersoll quote at the top: A private market for health care is like a private market for air. Rather than making air a public good, we've created a system where the air stays private, but we have a government subsidy to help people pay for it.


The case against the individual mandate is that if it is constitutional, then the powers of the federal government are virtually unlimited. For some reason critics have fixated on broccoli: If government can make you buy health insurance, why then, they could make you eat broccoli. Matt Yglesias comments:

I really think these efforts to scare people with the specter of unlimited government founder on the fact that any government empowered to levy excise taxes is conceptually pretty much unlimited. The government is allowed to tax everyone, and use the revenue to subsidize broccoli consumption. Now maybe you think that’s legally distinct from the idea of fining people for failure to consume broccoli. But the practical impact is identical.

In any reading of the Constitution, with or without an expansive interpretation of the Commerce Clause, Congress has the power to do things that sound absurd. The constitutional remedy for this possibility is for the people to elect sensible representatives.



Sacrificing Your Life to Their Conscience

House Republicans seem to have abandoned their attempt to redefine rape, but not their overall anti-woman agenda. According to TPM, a new bill in the House would "allow hospitals to let a pregnant woman die rather than perform the abortion that would save her life."

H.R. 358, the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (which Daily Kos' Joan McCarter calls "the Let Women Die bill") is the logical extension of those "conscience" provisions 46 states have put into their laws, allowing right-wing Christians not to participate in medical procedures they find immoral. (I have yet to hear of a liberal or non-Christian or even nonstandard-Christian application of these laws. Imagine the outcry if some televangelist died after a car wreck because a Jehovah's Witness EMT refused to give a blood transfusion.)

In Idaho, a pharmacist refused to fill a prescription to stop the bleeding in a woman's uterus, because the nurse couldn't give assurance that the patient hadn't just had an abortion. (If she had, apparently the pharmacist was content for her to bleed to death. God's will, I guess.) When asked to recommend someone who would fill the prescription, the pharmacist hung up. The Idaho Board of Pharmacy has found that the pharmacist did nothing wrong. In Idaho, where the next drug store might be some distance away, you have no right to get a prescription filled if the pharmacist doesn't want to fill it.

I have a compromise proposal for those states where some kind of conscience law is unavoidable: Medical professionals shouldn't be able to make these life-and-death decisions on a whim. If a doctor, nurse, or pharmacist wants to claim such a right-of-conscience, s/he should have to file ahead of time and go through a process similar to claiming conscientious objector status in war. That would allow hospitals, drug stores, and patients to maneuver around these people's limitations, and the more arduous process should weed out the folks who are just being jerks.


The Daily Show's Kristen Schaal says the redefinition of rape was necessary "to protect us from the worst kind of rape: money rape." She defines "money rape" as "forcible taking of taxpayers' money to pay for abortions." (That's parody, folks.)



2012 Republicans Run Late

Everybody who is not a political junky will be amazed to hear this, but the race for the 2012 Republican nomination is off to a late start, at least compared to recent presidential cycles.

Last time around, Barack Obama announced his candidacy right about now: February 10, 2007. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and various others were already in. On the Republican side, John McCain held off until the end of February, but he had already formed an exploratory committee the previous November. Mitt Romney announced on February 13. Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, and various others were already in by now.

In the 2004 cycle (which is more comparable to 2012 because there was an incumbent president), Howard Dean announced his candidacy in August of 2002, and Dick Gephardt, John Edwards, and John Kerry had exploratory committees out there raising money by the first week of January, 2003.

By contrast, Daily Kos' GOP Cattle Call 2012 says "the only Republican to even file exploratory papers thus far is Herman Cain, a millionaire best known as the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza." And it's not just that people are saying maybe in a wink-and-nod way. Yeah, we are 99% sure Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum are running, and Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann clearly want to, but there's genuine doubt about whether Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee will be in or out.

This is just a guess, but I think the Palin uncertainty is making everybody wait. Minor candidates usually go first (because they need the publicity). And the first impression a minor candidate wants to make this year is different depending on whether Palin is running.

The Daily Kos Cattle Call and National Journal Presidential Power Rankings differ wildly on who they take seriously. National Journal takes more of a political-insider view and so gives points to people for organizing and fund-raising, while DKCC is more focused on polling. So DKCC's top three are Huckabee, Romney, and Palin, while NJ's are Romney, Pawlenty, and Huckabee.

In the 2008 cycle, I was awful at predicting Democratic trends and uncanny when I analyzed the Republican race, maybe because I was more objective. This time, the only Republican who scares me (in terms of beating Obama and becoming president) is Huckabee. For this reason: When I ignore the content of his words and just look at his body language and listen to his tone, Huckabee does by far the best job of sounding like a reasonable guy. If you had all the candidates read the phone book out loud, and then asked a random group of low-information voters who they'd trust to do the right thing about an issue they know nothing about, they'd pick Huckabee.

On that look-and-sound test, Romney seems calculated, Bachmann crazy, Palin flighty, and who the hell are these other people anyway?

Fortunately, Huckabee doesn't seem to be raising money yet or maneuvering to sign up organizational talent in key states. I don't know why. Maybe he's happy being a Fox News host.

Another thing to bear in mind about this race: No sitting governor has any chance, because the problems of the states are just too big. Daniels, Jindal, Barbour, Christie, Perry -- forget about them. They're going to have to throw people out on the streets, raise taxes, and/or sign off on huge deficits right in the middle of the campaign. It won't fly.


The main reason I think Palin will lose in an embarrassing way (even in the primaries) if she enters the race: She doesn't have the organizational ability.

Organization is why the Democratic race came down to Obama and Clinton last time, and why Obama won. His golden rhetoric, personal charisma, and yes-we-can slogan got all the credit, but Obama's people were consistently a step ahead. They knew all the rules, and understood that you run a caucus campaign differently than a primary campaign. They consistently out-delegated Clinton in caucus states, and that was the difference.

Contrast Palin: Last week we found out she had taken the unusual step of applying to trademark her name, and the application was rejected because she forgot to sign it. Is she really going to out-organize Mitt Romney?

BTW, trademarking is a commercial rather than a political move, and so fits my belief that Palin is more interested in being a celebrity and making money than in governing. Funny, being a celebrity was bad when Obama did it.



Socialism Wins the Super Bowl

The New Yorker points out one of the little-publicized stories of this year's Super Bowl: The Packers are owned by their fans. There is a limit on how much stock any individual can own, and the by-laws don't allow the team to pay stockholders dividends, give them tickets, or provide anything of value other than a football team worth watching. The only reason to own stock is to have a say in how the team runs.

That explains why the team hasn't moved to a bigger, richer city (Green Bay has about 100,000 people and is not a suburb of anything larger) and still plays in historic Lambeau Field (which has been consistently upgraded over the years). ESPN adds that beer prices are reasonable, and the concession profits go to local charities.

Think about that: Los Angeles can't keep an NFL franchise. (It lost both the Rams and the Raiders in 1995 and hasn't had a team since.) But Green Bay can.

Remember the Packers the next time somebody claims that profit is the only way to motivate excellence. The franchise has won 13 NFL championships (nine before the Super Bowl was established in 1966), more than any other team. Ask your free-market-fundamentalist friends how Green Bay or the Packers would benefit from having an owner to siphon $20-30 million of profit out of the team every year.

The Green Bay model motivates community involvement. When a big snow needs to be swept out of the stands before a game, volunteers show up to do it. That would be incredibly stupid if their free labor was benefitting some billionaire owner. But it's not; it benefits a community institution.

How did this come about? The Packers' ownership model was established in 1923, before anybody knew pro football would be a gold mine. No other major sports franchise works this way, and the owners of the other franchises would rather you didn't find out about the possibility. NFL rules ban any other teams going the way of the Packers, but the Packers are grandfathered in.


A radio ad is using the community-owned Packers as a way to tweak Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.



Short Notes

For a long time now, I've been telling you that Bush administration officials with torture records shouldn't travel too freely. Well, this week President Bush himself canceled a trip to Geneva, apparently to avoid a criminal complaint filed against him in Swiss court. Protests were also planned, and the official explanation of the cancelation was security.

The torture case against Bush is fairly easy to make, given that he himself has admitted approving waterboarding, which international law has long recognized as torture.


If only you had $300, a video camera, some talent, and a few friends with nothing better to do -- then you too could have made Lazy Teenage Superheroes.


And while we're talking about the more-than-human among us, have you filed your papers yet with the Supernatural Registration Authority? Descended from the UN's post-World-War-II Supernatural Refugee Board, "the Supernatural Registration Authority is responsible for tracking the birth/creation, movement, employment and death/transubstantiation of the world's supernatural entities." Registration is free.


I haven't watched Bill O'Reilly's interview of President Obama yet. But it does raise a question: Can you imagine Sarah Palin or any of the other Tea-Party champions having a one-on-one sit-down with Rachel Maddow? Sarah and her ilk don't have Obama's confidence or courage.


I'm getting the feeling that Glenn Beck has jumped the shark. He has a truly wacky interpretation of the Egyptian protests that winds up with the whole eastern hemisphere divided among China, Russia, and a Muslim Caliphate. (Spain, Italy, and maybe even Britain and France wind up in the Caliphate. Russia gets the Netherlands and China grabs Australia.)

Naturally, lefty voices like the Guardian and Rachel Maddow noticed the craziness. But even conservatives like US News' Scott Galupo (a former John Boehner aide and Washington Times writer) have lost their fear of criticizing Beck: "Beck is a college sophomore with a big budget. He knows just enough history to be dangerous rather than simply ignorant."

And Bill Kristol calls Beck's presentation a "rant", saying that "he brings to mind no one so much as Robert Welch and the John Birch Society. He’s marginalizing himself, just as his predecessors did back in the early 1960s."


Paul Krugman connects some dots: Protests in the Middle East connect to high food prices, which connect to extreme weather events like last summer's Russian heat wave, which connect to global warming. 

the evidence does, in fact, suggest that what we’re getting now is a first taste of the disruption, economic and political, that we’ll face in a warming world. And given our failure to act on greenhouse gases, there will be much more, and much worse, to come.

Explore the sorry mess that is the state of Arizona: Already ranked near the bottom in education and children's health, the state faces a $3.2 billion deficit and a legislature determined not to reverse recent tax cuts. They can't sell the state capitol again this year, so … more education-and-health cuts ahead. And more flashy distractions like trying to take away the citizenship of "anchor babies", making sure all future presidential candidates have a valid birth certificate, nullifying the national health care law, and offering new "In God We Trust" license plates.

The Weekly Sift appears every Monday afternoon. If you would like to receive it by email, write to WeeklySift at gmail.com. Or keep track of the Sift by following the Sift's Facebook page.

Monday, January 31, 2011

More Perfect Union

We the People of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America

-- the Preamble of the United States Constitution

In this week's Sift:

  • SOTU: Government as Us, Not Them. President Obama didn't announce any big new policy agenda, but instead laid out a counter-narrative to the Tea Party's stop-the-government rhetoric. Obama frames government as how We the People act together to do things we can't do as individuals.
  • Egypt. Whatever government comes out of the current unrest is going to be very difficult for the American media to portray accurately. That's why I've started watching Al Jazeera.
  • Demoting the General Welfare. Rand Paul has given us a Tea Party budget. It's an opening salvo against the general idea that we are a nation with national interests.
  • Short Notes. House Republicans redefine the rape exemption for Medicaid abortion funding. No more secret holds in the Senate. Rabbis denounce Fox. Clarence Thomas' ethical problem. Utah gets a state firearm. A territorial turkey. And more.


SOTU: Government as Us, Not Them

President Obama's State of the Union address was a framing speech, not a policy speech. It told us not so much what the administration is going to do over the next two years, but how it is going to present its case to the American people.

As much as I'd like to hear a big policy agenda from the President, I think he made good use of the setting. The central battle of the next two years is going to be a battle of narratives. Republicans want the American people to think of government as a Them; government takes "our" money, and we may need to shut the government down to get it to stop. Democrats need to present government as an Us; in a democracy, government is how We the People do things collectively that we can't do as individuals.

When Obama said "We do big things," the "we" was America -- an undivided America where the public and private sectors work together smoothly. By talking about a "Sputnik moment", he made an analogy between our current economic challenges and the space race (in which we started out behind, but got to the Moon first anyway).

It's a brilliant frame if he can make it stick: The space race could not have been won -- or even run -- by the free market. And it produced one of America's greatest moments of national pride, the Moon landing. When government and the private sector work together, we do big things indeed.

The government-is-us-acting-together frame exposes the weakness of the conservative message, which can evoke national pride only through war. Conservatives are saying -- and should be made to say publicly, again and again -- that we can't have the things other nations have. We can't have national health care. We can't have bullet trains. We can't have clean, well-equipped parks and libraries and schools. We can't take care of our old people or send our young people to college. We can't have safe bridges or smooth highways. We can't have clean energy.

Other nations can, but not us. We're too poor.

That's a losing message, particularly at a time when the rich are richer than ever. Americans can see where the money has gone. And we don't want to be told that other nations are better than we are, that they can do things we can't. Americans want to do big things.


If you haven't already seen it, the best place to watch the State of the Union is on the White House web site, which has annotated the speech with appropriate images and graphs.

Then watch his speech at the Health Action 2011 conference, where he lets his hair down a little and mocks conservative disinformation about health reform. "Granny is safe," he pledges.

And this sign is pretty good.


None of the Republicans who responded to Obama did themselves any credit. Rep. Paul Ryan was earnest but dull; his official response was forgotten almost as soon as it was delivered. CNN conservative pundit Ed Rollins lamented: "He's the one we should be talking about tonight, and yet we're talking about Sarah Palin saying something very stupid."

Rep. Michelle Bachmann, representing the Tea Party, was wild and woolly. Among other distortions, she trotted out the long-ago-debunked charge that "16,500 IRS agents [may be] in charge of policing President Obama's health care bill."

The biggest flop, though, was Sarah Palin, representing herself. Responding to Obama's "Sputnik moment" quote, Palin garbled history that is well known to everyone but her:

He needs to remember that, uh, what happened back then with the communist U.S.S.R. and their victory in that race to space. Yeah, they won but they also incurred so much debt at the time that it resulted in the inevitable collapse of the Soviet Union

So the Soviets won, but that's why they collapsed in 1991, 34 years after Sputnik. (Maybe that was when the bonds came due.) With generous interpretation, parts of that statement can make sense. (Sputnik won the race to space for the Soviets, but not what is usually called "the space race", which we won.) But no interpretation pulls it all together into a coherent thought.

Then Palin rolled on to advocate more "Spudnut moments" -- a reference to a doughnut shop. I'll let the WaPo's Alexandra Petri respond:

President Obama is talking about competing with the rest of the world. He's pointing out that we need to get our act together and try to commit to education and research that will allow us to make innovative strides comparable to the ones we made after we got that wake-up call from Sputnik. And you are -- rambling about bakeries with names that sound sort of similar? I guess? It's just not a responsible comparison.
Yes, we need more Spudnut moments. We need self-sufficiency, work ethic, and delicious donuts here at home. But if we really want to get the economy back on track, we need a better-educated workforce, one that knows that the Space Race didn't bankrupt the Soviet Union, understands syntax, and doesn't just bloviate about bakeries.

I'm reminded of the dogs in the Pixar movie Up. Palin just suddenly yells out "Squirrel!" and is off on something else entirely.


I've speculated before that Sarah Palin will not run for president. Well, I think Michelle Bachmann is already running. She spoke to Iowans for Tax Relief in Des Moines on January 21, and if you watch Part I of that talk on YouTube, you'll see a campaign stump speech. Eventually she gets around to selling her vision, but in Part I she's selling herself -- explaining her connection to Iowa, telling her family's heroic immigration story, sprinkling in as many Iowa town and county names as she can, and in general looking more charming than I've ever seen her. The Iowa Caucuses are a year from next Monday, and she'll be there.

Bachmann has taken a lot of heat for what she says in Part II (around the 9 minute mark). Anderson Cooper said she flunks history, and "that's just not true." But it's actually more dangerous than that. Bachmann is in that George W. Bush region where her words, if put in their full context and parsed very generously, can be defended. But the listener almost certainly goes away with a false impression.

Here's what caused the trouble:

And our ancestors when they arrived on these shores -- just think of it -- they spoke different languages, they had different cultures, different backgrounds, different traditions. But unbelievably, they all bound themselves back to this tradition, this covenant that was contained in the Mayflower Compact, this covenant that we re-published in the Declaration of Independence. How unique in all of the world, that one nation that was the resting point for people-groups from all across the world! It didn't matter the color of their skin. It didn't matter their language. It didn't matter their economic status. It didn't matter whether they descended from nobility or whether they had a higher class or a lower class. It made no difference. Once you got here, we were all the same.

Now, obviously the color of your skin did matter, and even among whites the Jewish, Irish, and Italian immigrants were not really equal. In a generous context, though, Bachmann is talking about the ideal of America, not the practice. She mentions slavery as a "stain on our history" and then stretches the facts to claim "the very Founders that wrote those documents worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the United States."

Well, maybe Franklin and a couple others, but Washington and Jefferson kept their slaves, and the Founders as a whole worked tirelessly to push the question off to later generations. But the larger point Bachmann is making, that we were "self-correcting" on this issue, is more-or-less true, in the sense that no foreign power had to come in and free our slaves.

It's a Bush-like 10% truth that easily slides into 1% truth and then into outright fantasy. Dangerous.



Egypt

Breaking news isn't something the Sift can do well, so instead I'll point you to my favorite source for up-to-the-minute coverage of the Egyptian uprising. Sad to say, it's not any American news organization or even the BBC -- it's Al Jazeera. My cable system doesn't carry it, but I've been watching Al Jazeera live online.

In general, Egypt is a tough issue for the American media to cover clearly, because the reality over there runs perpendicular to a lot of our myths. For example, we think of ourselves as representing democracy and often (especially on the Right) think of Islam as our enemy. But in Egypt (as in many Arab countries) a corrupt dictator has been propped up for decades by America. And (as in any country with an authoritarian government and a religious tradition) many Egyptians look to religion for a moral authority higher than the tyrant, and as a source of values higher than money and power. In Poland, that religious tradition was Catholicism; in Egypt, it's Islam. (Check out this photo of protestors praying while police stand over them.)

So to the extent that Egyptians ever get a government that truly represents them, that government will be part-secular, part-Islamist, suspicious of America, and cautiously hostile towards Israel -- a little like Turkey's government, only moreso. It's hard to imagine American media recognizing such a government as democratic, no matter how free the elections might be.

Over here, this situation is making heads explode across the spectrum. The administration sounds unconvincing as it tries to distance itself from a former tyrannical ally without unnerving our other tyrannical allies (like the Saudis). Meanwhile, right-wingers are simultaneously claiming the uprising as evidence that Bush was right about spreading democracy in the Middle East, and saying that we have to support Mubarak. Israeli commentators are already tagging Obama as "the president who lost Egypt".

The other feature to watch about the uprising is its pan-Arabian nature. It spread to Egypt from tiny Tunisia, and there are already demonstrations in Yemen. Places like Jordan and the Emirates have to be worried. Cairo is the traditional center of thought and learning in the Arab world, and any movement that took hold in Egypt would have strong appeal.

Right now, Americans need to educate ourselves about Egypt and similar countries, so that we're not easily stampeded by the propaganda that will surely erupt against whatever government replaces Mubarak, assuming he falls. This 2004 article in the New Yorker seems like a good place to start. Send me links as you find them.



Demoting the General Welfare

I am still looking for the source of the quote that goes something like "If you want to know an organization's values, look at its budget." Rand Paul's newly submitted  "A Bill to cut $500,000,000,000 in spending in fiscal year 2011" is the closest thing to a Tea Party budget we have. It says a lot about Tea Party values.

The first thing to note is that Paul is cutting half a trillion out of the current fiscal year, the one that we're already four months into. (Federal fiscal years start on October 1.) If it were to pass (unlikely), federal agencies already four months into their budgets would get  rude surprise.

The bill itself is only 12 pages, and gives no details beyond naming a piece of the government and then saying how much less money it gets. For example:

Amounts made available to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention for fiscal year 2011 are reduced by $1,165,000,000.

To get any kind of explanation, you need to go to Paul's overview document. At 37 pages, it is also terse. But there are themes: Agencies should return to their original missions, no matter how much the world has changed in the meantime. Any program that is not solving its problem should be eliminated rather than fixed or replaced, regardless of the effect on the underlying problem. And beyond defense, there is no such thing as a national interest; the states are like 50 bison that have clumped together in a herd for safety.

But sometimes you don't get even that much justification, and the cut seems to be based on little more than an ideological assumption that waste must be in there somewhere. Take the CDC again. It's our front line against plagues and epidemics, the folks we depend on to helicopter down in astronaut suits if SARS or ebola breaks out or drug-resistant tuberculosis gets out of hand. It has a total budget of $6.342 billion in 2011, so $1.165 billion represents a 28% cut for the final 2/3 of the year (assuming Paul's bill could be passed immediately).

How should the CDC fulfill its mission with 28% less money? Given how disastrous a mistake could be, you might hope for some kind of expert justification, maybe based on a medical study or two. Nope. The overview suggests "focusing on domestic priorities rather than spending billions on overseas initiatives." So basically, the CDC should stop worrying about plagues in other countries, and wait until they show up here. In Rand Paul's world, that kind of thinking saves money.

There's a lot of nostalgia in Paul's worldview. Department of Education should be eliminated because we didn't have one in the first half of the 20th century, when "America ranked among the most educated population in the world," while now "the U.S. now ranks far below other economically developed countries." Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

The National Park Service can be cut 42% by returning public lands "to the states or the private sector".

In short, there is no national interest in things like education or infrastructure or research, and if Arizona wants to sell off the Grand Canyon (like it sold its state capitol building and supreme court), that's no more my affair than if Peru privatized Machu Picchu. It's a state treasure, not a national treasure.

The people who promote this vision claim to get it from the Founders, but it's really older than that. It's the vision not of not the Constitution, but of the Articles of Confederation that the Constitution replaced. The Articles created less perfect union, a "firm league of friendship" more like NATO than a nation. Dissatisfaction with the Articles motivated founders like James Madison and Alexander Hamilton to push for a constitution with broad national goals like "promote the general welfare".

When was the last time you heard the consitution-quoters of the Tea Party talk about promoting the general welfare?



Short Notes

Wild turkeys, it turns out, are territorial. This one wants to drive the Postal Service eagle away.


The latest example of the IOKIYAR (It's OK If You're a Republican) principle: Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Over five years his financial disclosure forms failed to declare nearly $700K of his wife's income from conservative groups. It's a crime, technically lying under oath, and it's got people wondering if he voted on cases where he had a conflict of interest, most notably Citizens United.


400 rabbis put an ad in the Wall Street Journal calling on the Journal's owner, Rupert Murdoch, to sanction his Fox News employee Glenn Beck for portraying Holocaust-survivor George Soros as a Holocaust-collaborator: "It is not appropriate to accuse a 14-year old Jew hiding with a Christian family in Nazi-occupied Hungary of sending his people to death camps." More generally:

you diminish the memory and meaning of the Holocaust when you use it to discredit any individual or organization you disagree with. That is what Fox News has done in recent weeks

Jon Stewart also called attention to the frequent Nazi references on Fox, particularly by Beck. Meanwhile, Beck's ratings are sagging. A year ago he often drew 3 million viewers a night, but lately he has had trouble breaking 2 million. (That's still high compared to other cable news shows; 1 million viewers is a good night for Rachel Maddow.)


I've complained before about essays that get padded out to book length just because there's a market for books. Well, now there are Kindle Singles: shorter works available for $1-3. With its typical optimism, Wired says this "saves long-form journalism". Maybe. First let's see if Nook and iBook follow suit.


Mother Jones explains the House Republicans' proposed abortion bill: "If a 13-year-old girl is impregnated by a 24-year-old adult, she would no longer qualify to have Medicaid pay for an abortion." An NYT editorial lists the ways in which this bill would make it harder to find and pay for any insurance policy that covered abortion.


Nicholas Kristof tells the story of St Joseph's Hospital in Phoenix, which got stripped of its affiliation with the local Roman Catholic diocese after performing an abortion to save a woman's life and refusing to repent for it. This was the bishop's escalation after excommunicating a nun on the ethics board didn't bring the hospital to heel.


The push to end the filibuster comes to nothing, but at least the Senate got rid of secret holds -- a parliamentary maneuver by which a senator could block legislation or nominations without taking a public stand.


Injured pitcher Gil Meche walks away from the $12 million the Royals were contracted to pay him next year. "Making that amount of money from a team that’s already given me over $40 million... it just wasn’t the right thing to do.”


In Utah, the state bird is the California gull, the state flower is the sego lilly -- and soon the state firearm will be the Browning M1911 pistol.

The Weekly Sift appears every Monday afternoon. If you would like to receive it by email, write to WeeklySift at gmail.com. Or keep track of the Sift by following the Sift's Facebook page.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Coping With the Future

The present is already too much for me. I can't cope with the future as well.

-- Salman Rushdie, Shalimar the Clown

In this week's Sift:

  • Social Security. Two kinds of people look ahead 75 years: actuaries and science fiction writers. We need to be a little bit of both to avoid getting stampeded into a "middle way" solution.
  • State Bankruptcy Gains Support. Republicans want to let states opt out of their union contracts the same way bankrupt companies do. This only makes sense after you demonize government workers. Plus, updates on the budget problems in Texas, Nevada, and Arizona.
  • Conservatives Start Eating Their Own.For years conservatives have been encouraging anti-Muslim paranoia. Now that chicken is trying to roost.
  • Short Notes. The Tea Party was all about the culture war after all. John Adams mandated government health care. Palin makes Texas a battleground state. Repealing health care won't save jobs. And more.


Social Security

This week the second supposedly bipartisan or nonpartisan plan for fixing Social Security came out, and it looks a lot like the first one (see slide 45): Dire warnings of what will happen if we do nothing, followed by calls for a higher retirement age, means-testing benefits, lowering cost-of-living increases, and a variety of other measures, including raising benefits for the poorest recipients to avoid looking like Scrooge.

This plan comes from the Third Way organization, which claims to "advance moderate policy and political ideas" that are not "defined by the rigid or outdated orthodoxies of both the left and right."

Because Third Way and the co-chairs of President Obama's bipartisan budget commission are saying the same things, there's a possibility that this plan could cascade. The media could pick it up as the consensus of reasonable people, and nonsupporters would have to explain why they were being unreasonable. The assumptions behind the plan could become part of what "everybody knows" -- the way we all "know" that tax cuts promote growth or government is full of waste or the US has a responsibility to police the world. When you challenge such ideas, you don't get evidence in response; people just chuckle at how uninformed you are.

Does this view of Social Security deserve that kind of status? I don't think so, but to explain why I have to back up and give a primer on how to look at these kinds of things.

Getting Started. Only two kinds of people look 75 years into the future -- actuaries and science fiction writers. When you think about the future of Social Security, you need to keep a handle on both points of view. It's the actuary's responsibility to answer the question: "What if we keep doing what we're doing for a long, long time?" And it's the sci-fi writer's responsibility to remind us that in fact we won't. We never do.

It's like drawing up a 10-year household budget. The best you can do is imagine that your income and expenses will stay steady or continue increasing at the same rate they have been increasing for the last several years. They won't, of course. It's ten years; you're bound to have triplets or inherit Uncle Lester's fortune or change professions a couple of times. Something will make sure that you don't wind up with the net worth the budget predicts.

Which is not to say that long-term projections are useless; you just have to know how to use them. They aren't plans or even predictions, really. They're reference points. The question they really answer is: If we could keep doing what we're doing for a long, long time, what would happen?

You also need to understand one other thing: Any time you assume recent trends will continue into the distant future, you wind up with an exponential graph -- the kind that starts out almost flat and then goes wildly up or down. That's just math; it's got nothing to do with the topic, whatever it is. Exponential graphs make you giddy if they're going the way you want, and scare you silly if they aren't, because they always wind up at some astronomical number, either positive or negative. But that's not how reality works; it's just an artifact of the current-trends-continue assumption.

The $44 Trillion Hole. So, for example, the Third Way folks display this horrifying graph, where the Social Security Trust Fund winds up $44 trillion in the red by 2085. $44 TRILLION!!! Oh my God! We have to do something drastic immediately!

But slow down and think like a science fiction writer for a minute: Even adjusted for inflation, $44 trillion might be pocket change by 2085. 75 years ago was 1936. Imagine telling somebody from 1936 that people of 2011 can be overweight and have color TVs and cell phones and still be considered poor.

Third Way gets its data from the Social Security Trustees report. But it doesn't sound nearly as bad there:

For the combined OASDI Trust Funds to remain solvent throughout the 75‑year projection period, the combined payroll tax rate could be increased during the period in a manner equivalent to an immediate and permanent increase of 1.84 percentage points

Retiree/worker ratio. Third Way presents this evidence that the current program is unsustainable:

In 2010, there were 3.5 taxpayers per Social Security recipient. By 2030, the ratio declines to 2.5 per beneficiary, and holds constant for several decades.

That's mainly because people will live longer, so the over-67 segment of the population will grow. But a sci-fi author would consider this analogy: In 1930 about 25% of Americans lived on farms. Today about 2% do. Are we having food riots, or are we struggling to come up with ways to use our corn surplus?

The most relentless thing in the American economy is productivity growth, which continued right through the recent recession. Improved technology keeps giving us more output per hour worked. So as a society, we can either consume more and more all the time, or work less and less. Working less can mean either longer retirements or higher unemployment (as it has recently). So I think a future in which Americans work for 30-40 years and then have the option to retire for 20-30 years sounds pretty reasonable.

Again, the Trustees' Report presents the same data more calmly:

OASDI cost is estimated to rise from the current level of 4.8 percent of GDP to about 6.1 percent in 2035, then to decline to 5.9 percent by 2050, and to remain between 5.9 and 6.0 percent through 2084.

Is that bad? Why? Public pension spending (defined to be broader than Social Security) was 6% of GDP in the US in 2005, but 12.4% in France, 11.4% in Germany, and 8.7% in Japan. None of those countries is collapsing.

The Shell Game. Scary exponential graphs are not the only tricks to watch out for in this discussion. The most common is the entitlement/Social Security switch. Third Way does it like this:

Social Security reform must be achieved in the context of an entitlement system that is dangerously on autopilot.

"Entitlements" include Medicare and Medicaid, which are part of the health-care mess that the Affordable Care Act was only the first step in sorting out. Social Security is doing quite well by comparison. But it's common to bundle them together, declare a crisis, and then insist Social Security needs to be cut. (A better solution would be instituting German or French style socialized medicine, which delivers better care for about 2/3 the cost of our system.) It's like saying, "As a group, you and two terminal cancer patients are in bad shape. So as a first step in dealing with that crisis, you need to stop eating french fries."

Conclusion. I think we're being stampeded into "fixing" something that is working reasonably well, and we're being herded in the direction of spending cuts when tax increases on the well-to-do make more sense. (Third Way acknowledges that "many on the progressive side" believe Social Security can be fixed by eliminating the rule that exempts earnings over $106K from Social Security taxes. It never refutes that point, but instead brushes it away with calls for unspecified "growth-oriented investments" instead.)

Worse, supposedly "progressive" elements of the reform package -- means testing, extra benefits for lower-income people -- undermine the we're-all-in-this-together aspect of Social Security and make it more of a welfare program for old people who didn't save enough. Once that's done, Social Security beneficiaries become a "them" rather than an "us". Then the demonization can start -- listen to what they've been saying about unemployment insurance recipients -- and then benefits can be cut further.

Conservatives have always hated Social Security, because it's a big government program that works and is popular. They'd rather that it not work and be unpopular. Any "middle way" that compromises with them is not good for the program.



State Bankruptcy Gains Support

An idea that I mentioned last week but didn't take very seriously -- establishing a bankruptcy process for states -- is apparently getting serious attention in Republican circles, according to Thursday's NYT. The story's lead attributed the interest to "policymakers", but the only names that come up are Senator Cornyn, Newt Gingrich, and Harry Wilson -- all Republicans. An article in the conservative Weekly Standard is mentioned, and I linked to a column on the conservative Townhall.com site last week. It's a Republican idea.

The point is basically for a state to get out of debt by voiding the contracts it has with state workers, possibly even renegotiating "existing pension benefits" according to the Weekly Standard article. Breaking union contracts is an important reason corporations go bankrupt, and Republicans want states to have the same option.

Let me explain why this idea is loony. In a corporate bankruptcy, the underlying idea is that the corporation can't come up with all the money it is committed to pay. Corporate money ultimately comes from customers, and the customers aren't committed to anything. So if the corporation tried to raise its prices to get enough money to meet its obligations, the customers would just refuse to buy.

In a state, however, the customers and the stockholders are the same people -- the citizen-taxpayers of the state. What stops the state from coming up with more money is that its citizens (through their representatives in the legislature) are refusing to pay higher taxes. So basically, a state bankruptcy allows the citizens to refuse to pay the people who work for them just because they don't want to.

It would be one thing if we were talking about some massive external disaster -- a hurricane, an earthquake, a plague -- that was unimaginable when the contracts were signed. But nothing of the sort has happened, and in states like Texas or Arizona, the fiscal problems follow large tax cuts.

The only reason state bankruptcy makes sense to anyone at all is that the Right has done a such marvelous job of demonizing government workers over the last several decades. But government workers are not fundamentally different from any other kinds of workers, and they have as much right to paid for their work as anybody else. If promises were made to them, those promises should be kept. A comment on the NYT story said it well:

I am a state employee nearing retirement age. All of my life, especially in the 90's, I have heard this: "Well, if you work for government (God love you, you poor dumb little country mouse) you will never get rich, but at least you have good benefits and a steady job." Starting in the 80's, we heard that American workers needed to become more productive - and we did, by every measure.

Texas. The New York Times did a Room For Debate forum -- two conservatives, two liberals -- on Texas' budget problems. It's worth pointing out some of the rhetorical sleight-of-hand the conservatives use.

Chris Edwards of the libertarian Cato Institute:

Total state spending jumped 69 percent from the 2000-01 budget to the 2008-09 budget. So while the budget is flat now, it’s after a large run-up.

Let's assume the 69% is true. But the 2000 census counted 20.85 million Texans while the 2008 estimate was 24.33 million, an increase of 17%. The consumer price index was at 168.8 in January 2000 and 211.08 in January 2008, an increase of 25%. (That's a low estimate, because state spending has a high component of medical costs, which have increased faster.) So to keep per capita state spending flat in inflation-adjusted terms from 2000 to 2008 would require a 46% increase in nominal spending. [1.17 x 1.25 = 1.46] If nominal spending actually increased 69%, that's a 16% increase in inflation-adjusted per capita spending. [1.69/1.46 = 1.16] Over eight years, that's an average increase of 1.8% per year. [1.018 to the eighth power is 1.16]

So in the "large run-up" between 2000 and 2008, the average Texan saw the real value of her portion of state spending "jump" 1.8% per year. It sounds a little less impressive when you put it that way, doesn't it?

What conservatives Heflin and Edwards ignore but liberals Mann and McCown point out is that the current "crisis" was a predictable and predicted consequence of an irresponsible tax cut in 2006. Accounting tricks and federal stimulus money kept the structural deficit hidden until now.

Nevada. Here's new Republican Governor Sandoval's plan to deal with Nevada's deficit:

cut spending by consolidating government programs, allowing the university system to raise its own tuition and fees, and shifting more responsibility for social services onto cities and counties.

But the cities and counties don't get any new revenue either, and the amount of money they can spend on social services is capped by law. So ...

thousands of residents on the brink of homelessness are vying for depleted aid that will diminish further when social services are cut. The programs offer rental assistance and other means for keeping the destitute off the streets and out of jails and emergency rooms, [Clark] county officials say.

But hey, more homeless people is better than rich people paying higher taxes. And since jails and emergency rooms are free (aren't they?) the savings must be enormous.

Arizona. Anderson Cooper interviews a man who can't get a heart transplant because of Arizona's budget cuts: "I'm a good citizen," says Doug Gravagna, "and I should get another chance at life. It shouldn't be taken away from me. She [Gov. Brewer] shouldn't be able to decide whether I live or die."

"For the last three months," says an Arizona Democratic legislator, "the governor has essentially been a one-person death panel."

While the transplant issue has gotten all the press, Arizona has also been cutting services for the mentally ill. The CEO of the Arizona Foundation for Behavioral Health sums up how pound-foolish this is:

The reality is cutting services does not cut demand. Individuals who can no longer get services through the state will wind up getting services through emergency departments . . . or they'll get those services through the Maricopa County jail.

More untreated mentally ill people in a state with lax gun laws. What could possibly go wrong?



Conservatives Start Eating Their Own

From a political operative's point of view, the great thing about crazy people is that they have lots of energy. They're dedicated. They don't give up. If you can get them focused on your opponent -- demanding to see his real birth certificate, say, or making him out to be part of a deep conspiracy that goes back to some James-Bond villain like Woodrow Wilson -- it's gold for your side.

But conservatives are discovering the problem that arises when you court the lunatic fringe: Once you give the crazies legitimacy, there's no telling what they'll do with it.

CPAC and Grover Norquist. Frank Gaffney is the type of loon who sees Muslim terrorists under the bed. Like Communist subversives in the 1950s, Muslim terrorists and Sharia law are everywhere, infiltrating everything. Gaffney has been very useful to conservatives in flogging the bogus "Ground Zero Mosque" issue and making President Obama appear to be supporting terrorism.

Well, now there's a problem. The American Conservative Union (which puts on the popular CPAC conference) has a Muslim board member, Suhail Khan, formerly of the Bush administration. So the conservative movement itself has been infiltrated by the Muslim Brotherhood. As Gaffney-ally Paul Sperry says:

Suhail is the firstborn son of the late Mahboob Khan, a founding father of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in America. Suhail has been a consultant to CAIR [The Council on American-Islamic Relations] and served on committees at ISNA [the Islamic Society of North America], both of which the government says are fronts for Hamas and its parent the Muslim Brotherhood.

Even Grover Norquist (the guy who wants to drown government in a bathtub) is implicated. "We are in a war," Gaffney told World Net Daily, "and he [Norquist] has been working with the enemy for over a decade."

Anderson Cooper summarizes the story, and then interviews Gaffney and Khan side-by-side. I'm not proud of my vindictiveness here, but I found it delicious to watch a conservative deal with the same kind of conspiracy-theory charges that are routinely unleashed on liberals.

Governor Christie. You know who's also conspiring with the terrorists? New Jersey's Republican Governor Chris Christie, occasionally mentioned as a presidential dark horse.

Christie -- you'll never believe this -- appointed a Muslim judge!! The guy's name is Sohail Mohammed, and he committed the unforgivable sin of defending detained Muslims who were never charged with anything. And he's on the board of the American Muslim Union which "has interlocking leadership with a group that has allegedly raised funds for Hamas and hosted as a guest speaker last year an alleged Hamas member." So the judge knows a guy who knows a guy who might belong to Hamas. And Christie knows him.

I'm reminded of Lewis Black's summary: "It's six degrees of Kevin Bacon, except that there's just one degree, and Kevin Bacon is Hitler." Or, in this case, Bin Laden.



Short Notes

During the campaign, we kept hearing that the Tea Party was focused on economic issues rather than the culture wars. But now it looks like restricting abortion is a top priority after all.


The Jesus-Hates-Obama ad is too much even for Fox.


The first bill to create government-run health centers and mandate health insurance coverage wasn't Obama's. It was John Adams'.


Here's the point that needs to be made about calls for across-the-board budget cuts or return to 2008 or 2006 levels or other sound bytes: Republicans ran on the idea that government waste is everywhere, and yet, now that they have the power to pass a budget in the House, they can't identify that waste.


Eric Cantor isn't a birther himself, but he's not going to criticize people who are.


The Onion News Network is on TV now, and as good as ever: Judge Rules White Girl Will Be Tried as Black Adult.


Sarah Palin fans need to think about this: A PPP poll has her leading Obama by just one point in Texas. In other words, if Palin is the nomineeTexas is a battleground state.


I don't care what they all say, Keith Olbermann going off the air just before Comcast takes control of NBC is too much of a coincidence.


Is Obamacare a "job-killer"? No.

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