Monday, May 2, 2011

Justified By Other Factors

Due to prevailing norms of equality, most Whites attempt to avoid appearing biased in their evaluations of Blacks. … As a consequence, White prejudice is more likely to be expressed in discriminatory responses when these actions can be justified by other factors.

-- quoted in The USA Today from
"Evaluations of presidential performance: Race, prejudice, and perceptions of Americanism"
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology

In this week's Sift:

  • Born in the USA. With the release of his long-form birth certificate, President Obama proved once again something that no one had any reason to doubt in the first place. The interesting question is: Why did he have to?
  • The Transformation of John Yoo. At precisely the moment when the White House passed from Bush to Obama, John Yoo discovered that the Constitution limits presidential power.
  • Short Notes. Bin Laden. Guantanamo. Atlas Shrugged tanks. Keith is coming back. The facts defeat a climate-denier. The WalMart business model creates a bad climate for WalMart. And more.
  • This Week's Challenge. Tell me what I should be reading.


Born in the USA

Every story about President Obama releasing his birth certificate should start with this: There was never any reason to be suspicious about Barack Obama's birth in the first place.

Now that it is out, the President's long-form birth certificate agrees in every particular with the shorter certificate that he put on the internet during the campaign, and with every claim Obama has made about his birth. There was never any reason to suspect it wouldn't.

Why not sooner? If you don't start there, then you quickly fall into the next trap: Why didn't Obama release his long-form birth certificate a long time ago? As the DumpTheDemocrats blog put it:

Perhaps the long delay in providing the longform certificate was to propagate and keep these folks in the foreground by allowing for just enough honest doubt to keep the thing going.

See? It's his fault. Obama wanted Republicans to spread vicious rumors and make stupid accusations against him so that they would look vicious and stupid. (Karl Rove opined: "The president himself has hoped Republicans would continue to talk about it, thereby damaging their own credibility.") He made them do it by only releasing one document to refute their baseless claims and holding back another one. See?

But when you recognize that there was no "honest doubt" (because there was no honest question to begin with), then it all looks very different. By law and tradition, candidates for public office are expected provide certain information. Beyond that, and absent any legitimately incriminating evidence, their privacy needs to be protected from fishing expeditions.

Consider this analogy: If your prints are on the murder weapon, it looks suspicious if you have no alibi. But if you have no connection to the case at all, no one should even ask you.

The McCain comparison. An interesting borderline case was that of John McCain's medical records. Typically, a healthy-looking candidate is presumed to be healthy; a thumbs-up from a doctor is sufficient. But McCain would have been older than any first-term president ever. Plus, he was a cancer survivor, and being tortured in the Hanoi Hilton probably didn't do his longevity any good either. Nastier rumors raised questions about psychological scars.

In response, McCain did not post his complete medical file on the internet. Instead, he released a 5-page report from his doctors (not discussing psychological issues), and allowed "select members of the media" to examine the larger file for three hours, without making any copies.

Subsequently, McCain's medical records did not become an issue in the fall campaign. So we still don't know whether, say, McCain was ever treated for the clap when he was a young Navy pilot. We shouldn't know. It's not our business.

But given that there was much less reason (zero reason, to be exact) to wonder about the circumstances of Obama's birth, why was he held to a higher standard?

What's he hiding? The if-you-have-nothing-to-hide argument says that an innocent public figure would release everything anyone might ask for. The problem is that everyone has something to hide. That's what privacy means.

Even if you have never broken the law, committed adultery, or burned ants with a magnifying glass, there is bound to be something you hope never enters the public record. For example, it is neither illegal nor shameful for married people to have sex with each other. But most of us don't want a complete record of where, when, and how to appear in the newspaper.

If you are obliged to deny false reports, then your non-denial confirms true reports. So I am not going to publish a list of the drugs I have not taken, the diseases I have not had, or the people I have not slept with. You shouldn't either, and neither should Barack Obama.

But if Obama has to publish his birth certificate in response to baseless speculation, then why not his student records? (Trump is already asking.) Don't we have a right to know whether he was ever caught smoking in the boy's room or making out behind the bleachers? How often did he skip class? And if he balks at releasing those files, doesn't that prove they contain something embarrassing? What's he hiding?

The comparable case here is George W. Bush and cocaine. He never denied the rumors, and yet his non-denial never festered the way the birth-certificate issue has. Why not?

Why Obama? Politico offers a benign explanation for the unprecedented aspects of the birther issue: We're in "a new era of innuendo" in which there is "no referee — and no common understandings between fair and unfair, between relevant and trivial, or even between facts and fantasy."

Lurid conspiracy theories have followed presidents for as long as the office has existed. Yet even Obama’s most recent predecessors benefited from a widespread consensus that some types of personal allegations had no place in public debate unless or until they received some imprimatur of legitimacy — from an official investigation, for instance, or from a detailed report by a major news organization.
… It’s hard to imagine Bill Clinton coming out to the White House briefing room to present evidence showing why people who thought he helped plot the murder of aide Vincent Foster— never mind official rulings of suicide — were wrong. George W. Bush, likewise, was never tempted to take to the Rose Garden to deny allegations from voices on the liberal fringe who believed that he knew about the Sept. 11 attacks ahead of time and chose to let them happen.

Politico blames "the decline of traditional media and the rise of viral emails and partisan Web and cable TV platforms" -- and not anything personal about Obama. He's just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

If that's true, then the next white Republican president will suffer even worse. Anonymous Democrats will make up some baseless story about, say, President Romney. (Maybe he has a bigamous second family somewhere. Mormons do that, right?) They'll flog it in viral emails, elected Democrats will wink-and-nod about Romney having only one family "as far as I know" while wondering "why he doesn't resolve all this" (with, say, a paternity test). When about a quarter of the population starts to credit the story, Romney will finally give an independent laboratory a lock of his hair.

Does anybody really expect that? I think it's absurd.

In 1999, some predicted that President Clinton's troubles represented a new era of impeachment. The next Republican president would really have to be on his toes, because Democrats would be out for blood.

Instead, Clinton's ordeal protected Bush. ("We don't want to go through all that again, do we?") Bush has confessed to ordering warrantless wiretaps and the torture of prisoners, either of which should have been impeachable (and are indictable now). But nothing happened.

No new era.

Double standards. As I see it, two things are going on: First, conservatives have -- and liberals lack -- both the will and the media machinery to create scandals out of nothing. (The closest conservative-victim parallel I can find is the Sarah-isn't-Trig's-mom theory, which even people as liberal as I am think is weird. No wink. No nod. It's just weird.)

Second, the submerged racism of the American public makes it easy to raise baseless suspicions about blacks. When the two come together, you get ACORN, the New Black Panther Party, Van Jones, the attempted smear of Shirley Sherrod, and birtherism.

Republicans bristle at the charge that race plays any role in their thinking, but how else can the pattern be explained? An NYT editorial stated the obvious:

It is inconceivable that this campaign to portray Mr. Obama as the insidious “other” would have been conducted against a white president.

The University of Delaware's Eric Hehman constructed a study (quoted at the top) to see if implicit racial prejudice (which can be measured like this) was related to suspicion of President Obama's "Americanism". To rule out simple political bias, attitudes towards Obama were compared to attitudes toward a closely related white politician: Vice President Biden. Conclusion:

higher prejudice predicted Whites seeing Obama as less American, which, in turn, predicted lower evaluations of his performance.

No evidence was required to start the snowball of suspicion rolling, because to many white Americans, blacks are inherently suspect.


The whole episode reminds Goldie Taylor of how her grandfather spent 21 days in a St. Louis jail for being black without carrying ID.


Tom Tomorrow has it nailed.


Slate gives a timeline of the birther conspiracy theory.


Stephen Colbert: "I'm just glad we can finally put to rest the crazy, fringe idea that this will end the controversy."



The Transformation of John Yoo

Of all the extraordinary things that happened the day Barack Obama was inaugurated, surely none was more remarkable than this: At precisely noon, Republicans by the thousands and tens of thousands discovered that America has a Constitution limiting presidential power.

And of all those instantaneous conversions, surely none was more wondrous than that of John Yoo. Someday I expect Yoo's Inauguration Day vision of the Constitution to be memorialized in great art, like St. Paul seeing Jesus on the road to Damascus, or the cross of Christ appearing in the sky above the Emperor Constantine.

Pre-inauguration, Yoo's writings (mostly memos for the powerful Office of Legal Counsel in the Bush Justice Department) did not hint at any limits on the president's prerogatives. President Bush, according to Yoo, could imprison people indefinitely on his own say-so. He could order them tortured, and if that violated the Convention Against Torture signed by Ronald Reagan, no problem -- the president could implicitly abrogate a treaty just by disobeying it, without notifying either the other countries that signed the treaty or the Senate that ratified it.

Questioners tried in vain to get Yoo to identify anything the president could not do. Not only could the president torture a suspected terrorist, he could crush the testicles of the suspect's child. When asked whether the president could order a suspect to be buried alive, Yoo replied only that an American president wouldn't "feel it necessary to order that".

Since Inauguration Day, though, Yoo has been a changed man. He may not have publicly repented or recanted any of the positions he took during the Bush years, but Yoo has frequently challenged President Obama for overstepping his constitutional powers.

Yoo's latest broadside came in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, and denounced this dictatorial outrage: Obama wants to require government contractors to reveal their political contributions.

Since the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, corporations have been able to spend unlimited amounts of money advertising for or against elected officials. They can even hide their contributions by funneling them through front organizations like the Chamber of Commerce or Americans for Prosperity. The Supreme Court's ruling mentioned the possibility of requiring disclosure by law, but a Republican filibuster blocked such a law in the Senate. Now, by executive order, Obama wants to impose a similar requirement at least on companies that do business with the federal government.

So suppose Congressman Smith earmarks money to build a road, and then Americans for Safe Transportation spends massively to smear Smith's opponent. Obama's order might allow the people of Smith's district to learn (in case they're interested) that the money for the smear ultimately came from the contractors who built the road.

Not so fast, Tyrant. John Yoo won't let you ignore the rights of oppressed corporations and their victimized CEOs.

If Obama's order were carried out, people might start taking economic revenge on corporations they disagree with. If, say, you knew that Target was spending money to take away your rights, you might not shop there. And that would inhibit Target's right to speak freely under Yoo's newly-discovered Constitution -- which requires that corporate political speech not only be as free and as loud as possible, but that it should have no adverse consequences to the corporation.

But Obama's executive order threatens to move us out of the ranks of normal child-testicle-crushing countries and make us like Nazi Germany or something.

Now, I know what you're thinking: Yoo didn't really change at all. You suspect he still believes in the power of Republican presidents to do the kinds of things Republicans want to do. Yoo's Constitution only restricts Democratic presidents from doing the kinds of things Democrats want to do.

That's a pretty cynical view, and I don't blame Yoo for refusing to address it. What's more, I don't think there's any way to make him address it -- short of maybe having him buried alive or something. And to his credit, President Obama hasn't felt it necessary to order that.


I confess to a small bit of poetic license: Yoo's conversion actually happened sometime between the election and the inauguration. Two weeks prior to Obama's inauguration, Yoo was already marking the proper limits of his power.


If you're a TV talking head and find yourself onscreen with Yoo, try this line: "John, why don't we continue this conversation in The Hague?"



Short Notes

Unless you live under a rock, you already know that Osama bin Laden is dead, killed in Pakistan by a Navy Seal attack on what an administration spokesman described as "a secured compound in an affluent suburb of Islamabad".

At first I wondered why the Navy so quickly buried him at sea, but Time explains: In accordance with Islamic practice, the body was disposed of within 24 hours. No country had stepped up to claim Bin Laden, and the US did not want anyone turning his burial site into a shrine.

Of all the reactions, this one is my favorite.


WikiLeaks strikes again with Guantanamo-related documents. I'll say more about this next week. Meanwhile, the best analysis is by Marcy Wheeler, starting here.


Keith Olbermann is returning to TV. His hour-long "Countdown" show will begin on Current TV on June 20.


The NYT editorializes on Republican-sponsored bills that make it harder to vote:

Kansas has had only one prosecution for voter fraud in the last six years. But because of that vast threat to Kansas democracy, an estimated 620,000 Kansas residents who lack a government ID now stand to lose their right to vote.

Overwhelmingly, the people who will now have to bring their birth certificates to government offices belong to groups that tend to vote Democratic: the young, the poor, the disabled, the non-white.

If you live in Texas and don't have your birth certificate handy, don't worry; your gun license will do. But your University of Texas ID won't.


The free market has rejected the Atlas Shrugged movie.


Defenders of California's anti-gay-marriage Proposition 8 want Judge Vaughn Walker's ruling against the law vacated because Judge Walker is gay:

Prop. 8 supporters are specifically arguing that Walker's acknowledged long-term relationship with a doctor should have been disclosed before the January 2010 trial because it would suggest he may have a personal interest in the right to marry.

Follow the logic through: If Prop 8 really does defend opposite-sex marriage, as its backers claim, then doesn't a heterosexual judge also have a personal interest? Perhaps this case should be referred to a special judiciary of eunuchs.


Dahlia LIthwick stands on principle: Even a bigoted piece of crap like the Defense of Marriage Act deserves a good defense. King & Spalding may not be Atticus Finch, but nobody should have pressured them to give up the case.


Get out your crying towels: WalMart has had 7 straight quarters of declining sales. CEO Mike Duke complains that his shoppers are "running out of money".

BuzzLightyear235 explains why: Too many companies have adopted the WalMart business model, in which you pay Americans low wages to sell stuff made (for even lower wages) in China. When one company does that, it prospers. But when they all do it, who are they going to sell to?


Oklahoma's House just overwhelmingly passed a constitutional amendment to ban affirmative action. The measure will now go to the voters.

You don't have to be racist to oppose affirmative action, but it helps.

Rep. Sally Kern, R-Oklahoma City, said minorities earn less than white people because they don’t work as hard and have less initiative.
"We have a high percentage of blacks in prison, and that’s tragic, but are they in prison just because they are black or because they don’t want to study as hard in school? I’ve taught school, and I saw a lot of people of color who didn’t study hard because they said the government would take care of them."

Kern later apologized, sort of. She "misspoke" and was taken "out of context". (The context she provides does her no credit.) And while she explicitly walked back her statement that women don't work as hard as men (by saying "women are some of the hardest workers in the world") she couldn't bring herself to acknowledge that blacks work hard too. Instead, she used her membership in an inner-city church as evidence that she and her husband "love all people". Even the lazy, shiftless ones.


If more Americans read novels, they'd know how perfect this metaphor is: The Snow Crashing of America.


A former climate-change denier admits that he has been "defeated by the facts".



This Week's Challenge

The main thing I do on the Sift is read stuff the average person doesn't have time for, and call it to your attention if it's particularly good or important. Help me do that: Tell me what blogs or web sites I don't seem to know about, but should.

The Weekly Sift appears every Monday afternoon. If you would like to receive it by email, write to WeeklySift at gmail.com. Or keep track of the Sift by following the Sift's Facebook page.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Nominations

No amount of balloting can obviate the need of creating an issue, be it a measure or a candidate, on which the voters can say Yes, or No. ...  The Many can elect after the Few have nominated.

 

-- Walter Lippmann, Public Opinion (1920)

In this week's Sift:

  • Hit the Ceiling or Raise the Roof? It's hard to predict exactly what will happen if Congress doesn't raise the government's debt ceiling, because then the administration will have a lot of choices to make. Unfortunately, all the options will be bad.
  • The Sifted Bookshelf: So Damn Much Money by Robert Kaiser.Democracy requires a lot of work. And when honest people won't do it, it still has to get done.
  • Short Notes. Answering birthers. ElBaradei imagines a Bush war-crimes trial. Senate recalls in Wisconsin. Peer-to-peer lending. Anxious teen girls. Roe v Wade in limbo. And more.
  • This Week's Challenge. If we don't want to put the essential work of democracy in the hands of special interests, how do we want to get it done?


Hit the Ceiling or Raise the Roof?

It's been hard to get a clear story about what will happen if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Michelle Bachman says things will be just hunky-dory:

If we fail to pass increasing the debt ceiling, it isn’t that the federal government shuts down … It isn’t that revenues wouldn’t come into the government, they would. It’s just that we’d have to prioritize our spending. ... It almost acts like a balanced budget amendment in a way because it says you can’t keep spending money you don’t have. That’s a good thing!

But back in January, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner made the possibility sound apocalyptic:

The Treasury would be forced to default on legal obligations of the United States, causing catastrophic damage to the economy, potentially much more harmful than the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

And Fed chief Ben Bernanke recently warned:

Beyond a certain point ... the United States would be forced into a position of defaulting on its debt. And the implications of that on our financial system, our fiscal policy and our economy would be catastrophic.

Let's see if I can unravel this. Much as I usually hate the analogy between the federal budget and a family budget (for reasons Matt Yglesias explains), in this case it lends some insight. Suppose your family is spending more than it takes in, running up a little more debt every month. Then your credit maxes out. What happens?

Well, you very suddenly start living within your income -- prioritizing your spending, as Bachmann says. But it's hard to make more specific predictions until we know what those priorities will be. Maybe you'll default on your mortgage, as Bernanke imagines, or maybe you'll cut back somewhere else so that you don't.

Whether "that's a good thing" or not depends on what somewhere-elses are available. Maybe you're outspending your income because you're an alcoholic, and you'll have to clean up your act now that the liquor store won't take your plastic. Or maybe you're running in the red because your daughter needs surgery and you have no medical insurance.

It makes a difference, doesn't it?

Bachmann wants us to believe that the federal budget is full of money spent at the corner tavern, buying rounds for the house. If that were true, she'd be right. Shutting off the government's credit would be good.

But she knows it's not true. Whenever the Right has to produce an actual budget -- or anything beyond a "cut spending" slogan -- they don't find significant amounts of waste to eliminate. Instead, they cut Medicaid, which is literally surgeries for uninsured little girls. (It's not as bad as it sounds. The girls are poor, many are black or Hispanic, and putting them on TV depresses the ratings. So you probably won't see them.)

The federal budget simply does not have the kind of huge waste the Tea Party imagines. When the government credit card maxes out, are we going to tell our soldiers in Afghanistan to shoot less? Ask seniors to eat cat food and stop taking pills until we get things sorted out? Close the courts? Stop inspecting food or nuclear power plants? Furlough FBI agents and hope Al Qaeda doesn't notice? Open the federal prisons so the inmates can start supporting themselves? Close the CDC and hope no major plagues erupt before we get it open again? Take our chances on hurricanes and earthquakes without FEMA?

No? Well what, then?

I can't pick any one of those things and say, "This will happen", because we could imagine making that particular thing the first priority. (And if it does happen, we could blame President Obama for not making it the first priority -- a position Senator Pat Toomey is already staking out.) Similarly, the maxed-out family could make the mortgage the top priority and hope that their daughter gets better on her own. If she dies or never walks again, you can blame them for that. Or if they pay for her treatment first and lose the house, you can blame them for that instead.

But even if we can't say exactly what it will be, we can be sure that some desperately vital thing will go unfunded if the debt ceiling isn't raised, because there just aren't enough non-desperately-vital things to make up the difference.

Anybody who thinks differently, I believe, has an obligation to tell us specifically what those non-vital things are. They owe us a line-by-line spending plan, one that stays within the debt ceiling without killing anybody -- or at the very least, estimates the body count.


Slate's Annie Lowry imagines how a treasury default hits the trading markets, and believes (as I do) that Republicans in Congress will quickly get in line once the markets start crashing. A better question is whether anything resolves the situation before that, which I am coming to doubt.


Salon's Andrew Leonard makes an obvious point that for some reason isn't getting any attention: Suppose the government avoids defaulting on its bonds by making debt payments its first priority, and instead defaults on other legal obligations like Social Security. Are the markets going to be reassured by that? Or will investors look at the video of homeless old people and conclude that this country is hopelessly broken?

Do a small-business analogy this time: Suppose I'm a banker who has money in a restaurant. They're up-to-date on the loan, but I hear they've stopped paying their other creditors. Shouldn't I call that loan in as fast as I can?


Monday, Standard & Poor's announced a "negative outlook" for the AAA rating on U.S. government debt, citing not the economy, but the political gridlock that might produce trillion-dollar deficits far into the future.

House Republican leader Eric Cantor jumped on this as a "wake-up call" to cut spending, a talking point widely repeated on the Right. But S&P's warning is about the deficit, not just spending, and Cantor's refusal to raise taxes on the wealthy is as much a part of the gridlock as Obama's unwillingness to cut Medicaid. Each is looking out for his supporters -- Obama for the poor, Cantor for the rich.


One measure of how far to the right the conversation has drifted is that the middle position is represented by David Stockman, who was Ronald Reagan's controversial young budget director 30 years ago. Remarkably for a conservative, he quotes statistics about how wealth has concentrated since 1979, and then analyzes:

The culprit here was the combination of ultralow rates of interest at the Federal Reserve and ultralow rates of taxation on capital gains. The former destroyed the nation’s capital markets, fueling huge growth in household and business debt, serial asset bubbles and endless leveraged speculation in equities, commodities, currencies and other assets.
At the same time, the nearly untaxed windfall gains accrued to pure financial speculators, not the backyard inventors envisioned by the Republican-inspired capital-gains tax revolution of 1978. And they happened in an environment of essentially zero inflation, the opposite of the double-digit inflation that justified a lower tax rate on capital gains back then — but which is now simply an obsolete tax subsidy to the rich


The Sifted Bookshelf: So Damn Much Money by Robert Kaiser

Everybody, it seems, hates lobbyists. And every now and then a bipartisan consensus in Congress passes new rules that are supposed to toughen restrictions on lobbyists and clean up the process.

And yet lobbying is a perennial growth industry in Washington. What auto factories used to be to Detroit and steel mills to Pittsburgh, lobbying firms are to D.C. The local economy revolves around them. They may not employ many working-class Washingtonians directly, but how would the city's bars and restaurants survive without them? Who would build office buildings in Tyson Corners or McMansions in McLean? And what would happen to the metro area's landscapers and pool-cleaners?

It's a mystery. Why is it so hard to get a handle on lobbying? How can it be so unpopular and yet so hard to shut down?

This month I got around to reading a great book on lobbying from 2007: So Damn Much Moneyby Robert Kaiser of the Washington Post. It doesn't answer those questions directly, but provides a lot of useful insight.

What changed. Kaiser recognizes that American politics has never been clean. But his book's main point is that both politics and government have changed for the worse since the 1970s, and the growth of lobbying is both a cause and a symptom.

In addition to lobbying, the key elements are:

  • cost of campaigns. The first election I followed closely was 1968, when Hubert Humphrey spent something on the order of $7 million and Richard Nixon overwhelmed him with a then-unheard-of $20 million. For 2012, President Obama is planning to raise $1 billion. At all levels, costs have gone up accordingly. As a result, congresspeople spend about half their working days on the phone raising money.
  • the "permanent campaign". Old-time campaigns took up maybe half of the last year of a congressman's term. Then the signs and slogans went into the closet for a while. But in the current era of 24/7 media and instant polling, the campaign never stops. And so politicians of both parties stay on message, parroting focus-group-tested talking points at all times.
  • the end of the independent legislator. This is a perverse result of good intentions: doing away with the seniority system in Congress in the 1970s. Pre-reform, a long-serving representative or senator would become a powerful committee chair. Owing this position to no one but his constituents, he could take independent positions -- as when Democratic Senator Fulbright turned against President Johnson's Vietnam War. Today, all institutional power in Congress comes by way of the party leadership, which explains why we see so many party-line votes.
  • avoiding Washington. Republicans took control of Congress in 1994 by running against Washington. Speaker Gingrich pressured all incoming Republican congresspeople not to move their families to D.C., and he shortened the congressional workweek to allow commuting back to the home districts. Democrats similarly kept their families home and commuted to avoid being labeled "creatures of Washington". Symbolically, this has kept Congress in touch with the people, but it also has the perverse effect that members of Congress don't know each other. They don't socialize, their spouses and kids don't hang out together, and they have no reason to trust each other.
  • the "farm league for K Street". In the old days, the point of running for Congress was to be in Congress. Defeated congressmen sometimes became lobbyists, but that was a pathetic story, not something to emulate. Today, Congress and congressional staffs are like college basketball teams -- places to get your ticket punched so that you can turn pro and make real money later. In 2007, Senator Lott resigned with five years left in his term, because otherwise new restrictions would have delayed the start of his lobbying career. According to Kaiser: "In a matter of six weeks, Trent Lott abruptly wound up a thirty-five-year career in Congress, abandoned his constituents in Mississippi, and opened a business that Washington rivals estimated would soon be earning millions of dollars a year." It's hard to maintain your independence as a legislator when you're already auditioning for your next job.

The Founders envisioned Congress as a deliberative body. Voters would send their representatives to the capital, where they would debate and compromise and try to arrive at a common purpose for the nation (much like the Constitutional Convention itself).

That simply can't happen any more. There's no time for it, and even if you change a congressperson's mind, s/he may not have the independence to vote differently. Instead, we have what Eric Alterman calls "kabuki democracy" -- a show of deliberation in which senators address the camera, not other senators.

Personalizing the problem. Kaiser has a good trick for knitting an unwieldy mass of information into a readable story: He follows the career of Gerry Cassidy, a lawyer who came to Washington in the late 1960s as a poorly-paid staffer to Senator McGovern, then started a lobbying firm whose early clients were universities, and over the decades has accumulated a fortune of $100 million.

Cassidy is a great choice, because he is not a pure villain. In many ways he resembles Robert Penn Warren's Willie Stark -- a young man of considerable gifts who simultaneously dreams of being important and of doing good, but who ends up just being important. Where exactly he goes wrong is hard to pinpoint. Cassidy seems to ride the wave of political change rather than steer it, but when you analyze the wave, it seems to be made of nothing more than people like Cassidy.

And that's a phenomenon we all need to understand if we're ever going to change things.

Privatizing democracy. Here's what I conclude after reading Kaiser: Democracy is a much more expensive and effort-consuming process than most of us imagine. Because we aren't willing to recognize or fund that work, it gets done privately. And the private funders take advantage of their role to steer our government for their own benefit.

Let me unpack that. Naively, democracy works through elected representatives doing the people's will. But, as Lippmann pointed out in the opening quote, "the people's will" doesn't become actionable (and may not even exist) until after somebody does a lot of work. Who?

The people, for example, may broadly want access to health care. But how does that shared desire turn into a plan of action? And how does that plan then become an Affordable Care Act that a person can be for or against? (I didn't work on it. Did you?) Once the ACA exists, who educates the public about what's in it, so that they can approve or disapprove? Who measures the resulting public opinion and organizes it into pressure that a legislator can feel, or into support s/he can ride to re-election?

In simpler times, legislators did much of this work themselves. With the help of a small staff, they studied issues, intuited public opinion, wrote legislation, rounded up colleagues to support it, and wrote speeches and newsletters to promote or denounce the outcome.

There's no time for that any more. The issues have gotten more complex and the science of manipulating public opinion more resource-consuming. Staffs have grown, but not nearly enough to keep pace. Legislators have their hands full reciting talking points on TV and raising money for the next election.

Who fills the vacuum? Not corporate-funded journalists, who have become another part of the problem. (But that's a subject for another week.) So: lobbyists, privately funded think tanks, high-priced pollsters and political consultants. They write the legislation, convene the focus groups, and produce the talking points. They organize the demonstrations and make sure the TV cameras are pointed in the right direction. And ultimately, they fund and produce the election campaigns.

In short, the work democracy requires -- the enormous effort needed to turn vague popular desires into programs and laws that can pass through Congress -- is being done by privately funded groups. Some of them, on some issues, promote the public interest. But most are working in the interest of their funders. Why wouldn't they?

And that explains why we haven't been able to get rid of them: They are corruptly doing work that ought to be done honestly, but which in any case needs to get done somehow. Until we figure out how to get that work done without them, they'll always sneak back into the process.



Short Notes

If friends or relatives keep forwarding you stuff about where President Obama was born, send them here.


Mohamed ElBaradei, who headed the International Atomic Energy Agency during the run-up to the Iraq War (and who more recently played a role in the Egyptian uprising) just wrote a book. ElBaradei had to deal with countries like North Korea, but he saves some of his harshest words for the Bush administration:

"I was aghast at what I was witnessing," ElBaradei writes of the official U.S. attitude before the March 2003 invasion, which he calls "aggression where there was no imminent threat," a war in which he accepts estimates that hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians were killed.

In such a case, he suggests, the World Court should be asked to rule on whether the war was illegal. And, if so, "should not the International Criminal Court investigate whether this constitutes a `war crime' and determine who is accountable?"


Wisconsin update: Recall petitions have been filed on five Republican and three Democratic state senators. The signatures are being validated, but if they hold up, new elections will be held in these eight districts. Democrats need to pick up three seats to gain control.


Slate's Farhad Manjoo explains Prosper.com, where strangers lend each other money over the internet. My first reaction was "That's crazy." But maybe not.


Somebody close to you has been keeping a secret file of all the places you go together. It's your iPhone.


At age 11, boys and girls are equally likely to be diagnosed with anxiety disorders. At age 15, girls are six times more likely. The different explanations of this phenomenon are a Rorschach test on attitudes about gender: Female hormones. Society's impossible demands on adolescent girls. Or a lack of empathy for teen-age boys turns their anxiety disorders into anger-management problems.


Slate's Dahlia LIthwick says that for practical purposes, Roe v Wade isn't the law any more. State legislatures are boldly passing laws that violate it, and pro-choice organizations are afraid to take these cases to the Supreme Court.



This Week's Challenge

Publicly funded campaigns are part of the solution for fixing Congress, but that's not all the work that needs to get done. And public funding to do the rest of it -- like organize and develop public opinion, or educate the public about proposed legislation -- could rapidly turn into 1984's Ministry of Truth. Brainstorm some alternatives. How does the work of democracy get done in a way that is independent of both the incumbent government and the special interests?

The Weekly Sift appears every Monday afternoon. If you would like to receive it by email, write to WeeklySift at gmail.com. Or keep track of the Sift by following the Sift's Facebook page.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Getting Richer

Many of our rich men have not been content with equal protection and equal benefits, but have besought us to make them richer by act of Congress.

-- President Andrew Jackson, vetoing reincorporation of the Second Bank of the United States (1832)

In this week's Sift:

  • The Return of Candidate Obama. If you've been wondering what happened to the guy America voted for, he came back Wednesday to give a speech about the deficit.
  • Corporations Can Pay Taxes. Conservatives often claim that corporate taxes are an illusion: Any tax on corporations just gets passed on to the consumers who buy their products. But that simplistic view of the market contradicts other conservative rhetoric, not to mention common sense.
  • Why Bradley Manning Matters. Just as the Jose Padilla case summed up the Bush administration's contempt for human rights, the Bradley Manning case sums up how little has changed under the Obama administration.
  • Short Notes. Quid pro quo in Wisconsin. Fair and balanced coverage quantified. Trump's rise is good for Obama. Incorporating your uterus. Rapping knuckles at Goldman Sachs. Green sex toys. A suspiciously amusing dispatch from the Shady Pines Home for the Violently Senile. And more.
  • This Week's Challenge. Freeing Bradley Manning seems to me like too much to ask for. But can we at least let some neutral observers in to inspect his treatment? Here's the petition to sign.


The Return of Candidate Obama

If you haven't watched to or read the speech President Obama gave Wednesday on the deficit, you should. It's a reminder that on occasion our political leaders can be factual and sensible. I had the same reaction as Salon's Joan Walsh: "That's the president I voted for."

Obama defended a lot of basic American values that conservatives often attack and liberals often leave undefended:

  • the public sector. In addition to individualism and suspicion of government, "there’s always been another thread running through our history -– a belief that we’re all connected, and that there are some things we can only do together, as a nation. … And so we’ve built a strong military to keep us secure, and public schools and universities to educate our citizens. We’ve laid down railroads and highways to facilitate travel and commerce. We’ve supported the work of scientists and researchers whose discoveries have saved lives, unleashed repeated technological revolutions, and led to countless new jobs and entire new industries."
  • entitlements. "Part of this American belief that we’re all connected also expresses itself in a conviction that each one of us deserves some basic measure of security and dignity. … We recognize that no matter how responsibly we live our lives, hard times or bad luck, a crippling illness or a layoff may strike any one of us.  'There but for the grace of God go I,' we say to ourselves." And so: Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance, Medicaid. "We would not be a great country without those commitments."
  • progressive taxation. "This is not because we begrudge those who’ve done well -– we rightly celebrate their success. Instead, it’s a basic reflection of our belief that those who’ve benefited most from our way of life can afford to give back a little bit more."

He told the often-forgotten story of how the deficit got this big: "America’s finances were in great shape by the year 2000.  … But after Democrats and Republicans committed to fiscal discipline during the 1990s, we lost our way in the decade that followed. We increased spending dramatically for two wars and an expensive prescription drug program -– but we didn’t pay for any of this new spending. Instead, we made the problem worse with trillions of dollars in unpaid-for tax cuts. … When I took office, our projected deficit, annually, was more than $1 trillion. On top of that, we faced a terrible financial crisis and a recession that, like most recessions, led us to temporarily borrow even more."

He faced facts about the budget: "Around two-thirds of our budget -- two-thirds -- is spent on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and national security. Two-thirds. Programs like unemployment insurance, student loans, veterans’ benefits, and tax credits for working families take up another 20 percent. What’s left, after interest on the debt, is just 12 percent for everything else … education, clean energy, medical research, transportation, our national parks, food safety, keeping our air and water clean."

He nailed the Ryan deficit plan: "I believe it paints a vision of our future that is deeply pessimistic. It’s a vision that says if our roads crumble and our bridges collapse, we can’t afford to fix them. If there are bright young Americans who have the drive and the will but not the money to go to college, we can’t afford to send them. …  [I]f that [Medicare] voucher isn’t worth enough to buy the insurance that’s available in the open marketplace, well, tough luck -– you’re on your own. … It’s a vision that says up to 50 million Americans have to lose their health insurance in order for us to reduce the deficit." (Hunter elaborates on this "staggeringly bleak vision".)

And he tells us who many of those 50 Medicaid recipients are (Ezra Klein illustrates): old people in nursing homes, poor children, children with autism or Downs syndrome or other disabilities that may require constant care. "These are the Americans we’d be telling to fend for themselves."

And thank God somebody finally rejected -- on moral grounds! -- the idea that the rich need more tax cuts: "In the last decade, the average income of the bottom 90 percent of all working Americans actually declined. Meanwhile, the top 1 percent saw their income rise by an average of more than a quarter of a million dollars each. That’s who needs to pay less taxes? They want to give people like me a $200,000 tax cut that’s paid for by asking 33 seniors each to pay $6,000 more in health costs. That’s not right." (Cartoonist Clay Bennett doesn't think so either.)

Finally, we get the President's deficit plan. It's typical Obama. No magic bullets, we have to do a little bit of everything: cut the kinds of discretionary spending we've already been cutting, but also let the Bush tax cuts expire for the wealthy, cut defense, reduce health care spending by raising the efficiency of care rather than by making the old and poor do without, and limit tax deductions for both individuals and corporations.

He claims that adds up to $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 12 years. I'm sure somebody reputable will check those calculations, and when I find that analysis, I'll link to it.


Usually the if-we-do-nothing scenario is a horror show that is supposed to goad us into action. But if we do nothing, it turns out that the deficit pretty much gets under control: The Bush tax cuts go away, Obamacare starts to control health-care costs, and so on.


Jargon watch: Conservatives have begun referring to entitlements as "welfare". Examples: Paul Ryan has equated Medicaid reform with welfare reform. (Matt Yglesias debunks this.) And David Brooks starts out talking about a European-style "welfare state", but then shortens it to just "welfare", as in "Obama, meanwhile, does not believe the current welfare arrangements are structurally unsustainable." and "Every few years, Republicans try to reform the welfare delivery systems to make them more marketlike." In both of these lines, "welfare" means entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

So the millions of Social Security beneficiaries are "on welfare". This narrative has been building at least since August, when Alan Simpson referred to Social Security as "a milk cow with 310 million teats."

Paul Ryan isn't lying when he says his plan doesn't change Medicare for those over 55, but you need to think another step ahead: After Ryan's plan passes, the generational warfare can start. Conservatives will tell young people that they pay crushing taxes to support welfare-queen baby-boom seniors. How long can that last?


About that theory that Keynes was wrong and the government should cut spending before the job market is back to normal: The United Kingdom is already trying it, and it's not working. Cutting government spending lowers demand, which kills jobs -- just like Keynes said it would


The Willamette Week reveals 9 Things the Rich Don't Want You to Know About Taxes. And Nicholas Kristof adds this bit of common sense:

it’s worth remembering that the last time our budget was in the black was in the Clinton administration. That’s a broad hint that one sensible way to overcome our difficulties would be to revert to tax rates more or less as they were under President Clinton.


Corporations Can Pay Taxes

A week and a half ago, Rep. Bill Posey (R-Florida) mocked the people who think oil companies should pay higher taxes. It's pointless, he argued, to tax corporations:

Let’s say we tax those evil oil companies another dollar a gallon. They’re not going to write the check. We know what’s going to happen; they’re going to raise the price a dollar a gallon. Or, given the corporate greed we sometimes see, round it off to two dollars. Corporations don’t pay taxes. Corporations collect taxes. They collect taxes from consumers who ultimately pay the tax.

This is an example of the heads-I-win-tails-you-lose logic I called out two weeks ago. In any other context, conservatives tell us how competitive and efficient the free market is. But now, when it's convenient, the price of gas is not bound by the market and can be whatever the oil companies want it to be. So we'd better not make them mad by asking them to pay taxes.

Suppose Exxon really could respond to a higher corporate income tax (it paid no U.S. corporate income tax in 2009) by raising its price to make up the lost profit. Then someone needs to explain this: Why isn't Exxon already charging the higher price?

Corporations are (as I have explained before) sociopaths. They are not interested in charging a fair price and making a fair profit, because the whole concept of fairness does not register with them. So at all times -- tax or no tax -- they are trying to charge the highest price the market will bear and make as much money as they can.

In short: Exxon is already charging the highest price the market will bear. That price will go up or down in response to changes in the market, but subtracting an income tax from their maximized profit doesn't change the calculation. Corporations can pay taxes if politicians have the courage to tax them.



Why Bradley Manning Matters

In the Bush years, the individual civil-liberties case that summed everything up was Jose Padilla: an American citizen arrested in Chicago and held in a military brig for 3 1/2 years without charges or trial, in abusive conditions that ultimately destroyed him as a person. (Padilla was eventually convicted on a vague conspiracy charge unrelated to what he was originally suspected of. During his trial Padilla appeared to root for the government and against his own defense.)

President Obama was supposed to change all that. But though he has softened the Bush regime a little, overall not much is different. The Bush administration's interpretation of the Constitution could have gone on to justify more-or-less any abuse a president could imagine -- a John Yoo memo from 2001 claimed that the President's role as commander-in-chief allows him "to take whatever actions he deems appropriate" to fight terrorism -- so we're well rid of those guys. But most of the actual civil-liberties abuses under Bush continue and are being defended by the Obama administration.

The individual case that sums it all up now is Bradley Manning. Manning is widely believed to be the source of a vast trove of documents that have been made public by WikiLeaks. So he's either the greatest whistle-blower since Daniel Ellsberg (as Ellsberg himself believes) or a traitor to the United States or both.

But (like Padilla during the worst of his ordeal) Manning is still just a suspect, not a convict. And yet he is being held in conditions that constitute punishment, not detention. He sees no other prisoners and very few visitors. (Ellsberg, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, and the U.N. Special Rapporteur on Torture have all been refused permission to see him.) He is allowed to pace in a large room for an hour a day, but otherwise does not leave his cell. At times his clothes have been taken away, Abu-Ghraib-style. He is allowed to have one book at a time.

Individually, all these conditions are allowed in military brigs for short time periods in response to specific risks like escape or suicide. None of this applies to Manning; he is simply being punished for what he is suspected to have done. In the long term, this level of isolation is known to be debilitating, as it was to Padilla. Nearly 300 legal scholars -- including Obama's teacher Lawrence Tribe -- have signed a letter charging that this is cruel and unusual punishment banned by the Eighth Amendment.

In short, our government is literally driving a man insane -- an American citizen who has been convicted of nothing, and who some Americans consider to be a hero.


If you find it curious that anyone could make a hero of Manning, look at what Marcy Wheeler learned from the WikiLeaks cables: the extent to which our foreign policy is shaped by Monsanto. As in the Pentagon Papers, many of the secrets in the WikiLeaks cables are not being kept from foreign governments, they're being kept from the American people.

And if you're wondering how a low-ranking enlisted man was able to get his hands on that much sensitive information, Marcy is on that question too.



Short Notes

What do the Koch brothers get in exchange for funding the campaigns of Wisconsin Governor Walker and Supreme Court Justice Prosser? Their company gets to keep dumping phosphorus into Wisconsin rivers. Not a bad return on investment.

The NYT points out that this is a theme among the new Tea Party governors: "cut budgets and personnel at regulatory agencies, prevent the issuing of new regulations, roll back land conservation and, if possible, eliminate planning boards that monitor, restrict or permit building development."

Whether these environment-bashing policies create any jobs (other than in cancer care 20 years from now) is debatable, but they definitely create profits for the Tea Party's financial backers.


Fox News scorecard: Pumping up the phony New-Black-Panther-Party scandal: 95 segments lasting 8 hours. Covering the Justice Department OPR report debunking it: two segments lasting 88 seconds.


The rise of Donald Trump in Republican presidential polls is great news for President Obama. All the Republican front-runners are damaged in one way or another, so the party's only real chance in 2012 is for a presidential-stature candidate to come out of nowhere. Dark horses like Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels hope to be that guy, but the more oxygen Trump sucks out of the room, the fainter their voices get.


Are you a woman who worries that corporate rights keep growing while women's rights keep shrinking? The ACLU of Florida has the solution: incorporate your uterus.


Arizona's anti-immigrant law is working its way up the court system. An appeals court just backed up the district court's injunction against enforcing the law, on the grounds that the federal government seems likely to win its claim. The opinion is boring and technical, but boils down to this: Federal law takes precedence over state law, especially on issues that the Constitution explicitly assigns to the feds.


You can quote Catholic League President Bill Donohue, but you can't parody him. Consider last Monday's full-page ad Straight Talk About the Catholic Church in the Boston Globe.

What did he "talk straight" about? How overblown the whole priest-sexual-abuse thing is. After a bunch of whining and excuse-making -- "rape" is an exaggeration; most victims were just molested -- Donohue's punch line explains why priests are "singled out" even though all kinds of people abuse children:

Let’s face it: if [the Catholic Church's] teachings were pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage and pro-women clergy, the dogs would have been called off years ago.

OK, I'm not president of the Catholic League, but I think I have a better explanation: Maybe the furor has more to do with the claiming-to-represent-God-on-Earth thing. For some weird reason, that always makes people judge you by a higher standard.


Equal time for Catholics who pay attention to the teachings of Jesus: Franciscan nuns are going to the Goldman Sachs annual meeting to protest the sinful level of executive compensation. I hope they bring their rulers.


Heads I win, tales you lose: Planned Parenthood has to be defunded because money is fungible; no matter what accounting controls exist, any money the government gives them might get spent on abortions. But public money given to faith-based groups is not fungible; we can be sure -- somehow -- that the government isn't unconstitutionally funding religious proselytization.


Probably the Left will have this kind of fund-raiser to itself for a while: Buy your green sex toys at Babeland and the environmental news site Grist gets 10%. What makes a sex toy "green"? Babeland explains: rechargeable batteries, non-toxic materials, and so on. (Probably no animal testing either, though I'm trying not to picture that.)


The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has the charts: Taxes are low in the United States, both compared to other countries and compared to U.S. taxes in the past. The Republican talking point says: "We don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem." But in the real world, we have a revenue problem.


Matt Yglesias imagines how income tax could work: The IRS could sum up all the income reported to it, compare to your personal information from last year, and send you a bill. If you had additional information to offer or claims to make, you could file a return. Otherwise, just send a check or claim your refund.

Downside? H. R. Block's lobbyists would hate it, and conservatives want you to find taxes annoying.

Yglesias also calls BS on the claim that a flat tax would be simpler. If you do your own taxes, you understand why: "What’s complicated is the definition of taxable income", not the tax rates. The only thing a flat tax simplifies (by a line or two) is the computer program that produces the tax tables.

Flat-taxers argue that they also want to do away with deductions, which would simplify things. But we could eliminate deductions and still tax the rich at a higher rate than the poor. The two ideas are unrelated.


Having hit my 20-article monthly limit, I bit the bullet and got a digital subscription to the New York Times. The Times is far from perfect, but it does journalism that nobody else is doing. Good reporting doesn't happen by magic; somebody has to pay for it. If not the readers, then who?


I have no idea whether anything written on the Sarah, Proud and Tall blog is true or not. (You have to wonder about "Dispatches from the Shady Pines Home for the Violently Senile.") Sarah Howard claims to be 92 years old and tells a lot of unverifiable (and perhaps unlikely) stories about famous people. This one is about Ayn Rand, and if isn't true, it ought to be.



This Week's Challenge

There's an online petition to free Bradley Manning, which I haven't signed because I think it goes a little too far. Civil disobedience ought to have a price. But FireDogLake has a petition asking the government to stop restricting official visits to Manning. That seems like the least we can do. Take a look and see if you can sign it in good conscience.

The Weekly Sift appears every Monday afternoon. If you would like to receive it by email, write to WeeklySift at gmail.com. Or keep track of the Sift by following the Sift's Facebook page.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Root-Striking

There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root.

-- Henry David Thoreau, Walden(1854)

In this week's Sift:

  • How Money Talks. Sure, we all know the rich get what they want from government. But how does that work exactly? Here's what I learned from Lawrence Lessig at the National Conference on Media Reform.
  • The Ryan Medical Plan. Paul Ryan's Medicare and Medicaid reform plan doesn't even ask how the old and poor will pay for medical care. It just limits how much help they'll get from the government.
  • Short Notes. This week's notes slant towards comedy: Elon James White, Erin Gibson, Second City, Katie Goodman, Jon Stewart. Plus a few serious notes about debt ceilings, tax cuts, and growing up Objectivist.
  • This Week's Challenge. What perfectly fine policy alternatives never make it into the debate?


How Money Talks

Americans are bipolar about the power of the rich. On the one hand, if you tell an American, "The rich are really, really rich and their voices count for more than yours", chances are they'll roll their eyes in a do-you-think-I'm-stupid sort of way. Of course politicians pay more attention to David Koch and George Soros than they do to you. Of course AT&T and Exxon are getting something for all the money their lobbyists spread around. Everybody knows that.

On the other hand, when somebody quantifies just how rich and how powerful the rich and powerful really are, most of us are appalled. We knew, but we didn't know. We thought it was bad, but not bad like that.

Two Harvard researchers recently measured this gap between the actual concentration of wealth and what most Americans think it is. And in 2004 (studying data mostly from the 1990s), Princeton Professor Martin Gilens wrote a paper correlating the preferences of Americans of differing incomes with actual policy changes. He concluded:

Most Americans think that public officials don't care much about the preferences of "people like me." Sadly, the results presented above suggest they may be right. Whether or not elected officials and other decision makers "care" about middle-class Americans, influence over actual policy outcomes appears to be reserved almost exclusively for those at the top of the income distribution.

It's not hard to think of examples: In poll after poll, Americans say the rich should pay higher taxes, and that creating jobs is a higher priority than reducing the deficit. And yet, the budget talks that just narrowly averted a government shutdown were entirely focused on cutting spending (including job-creating public works projects) while tax increases for the rich or ending tax breaks for corporations were off the table.

So let's start there: Money talks. It talks a lot louder than most of us want to admit. And it gets results even when most of the rest of us disagree with it.

So how does that work?

NCMR. I spent Friday and Saturday at the National Conference for Media Reform in Boston. In one way or another, just about every session was focused on the way that money talks and how its volume could be turned down (or the volume of ordinary people turned up).

The conference wasn't designed to have a uniform message, but I kept hearing this theme: Neither blatant quid-pro-quo corruption nor overt censorship is the real problem. That kind of control is for amateurs. It happens, but if you stopped it you wouldn't have solved anything important.

Instead, the real problem is in the way the system is structured. Again and again, on many levels, the interests of both decision-makers and opinion-makers are aligned with private interests rather than the public interest.

These were the kinds of issues people talked about:

  • net neutrality. Only government regulation can keep the small number of companies who own the delivery infrastructure of the Internet (Comcast, AT&T, Verizon, etc.) from either favoring their preferred content or extorting tariffs on web sites to get their message delivered. This was once a bipartisan issue, but after $100 million of industry spending on PR and lobbying, it has become a liberal issue.
  • media concentration. How do you expose the undo influence of big corporations when you work for a big corporation and depend on its approval to keep your microphone turned on?
  • source capture. Reporters need access to sources in positions of power. If they offend those sources, their access dries up.
  • regulatory capture. Several times I heard this fact referenced: Michael Powell, the FCC head under President Bush, just took a high-paying job as the top lobbyist for the cable industry. (Lawrence Lessig quoted the number $2.3 million, but I haven't been able to verify that.) You don't need to assume any back-room deals to learn this lesson: If you're nice to the people you regulate, you've got a bright future after you leave government.
  • non-advocacy. The traditional journalistic value of objectivity -- going where the facts lead rather than pushing the story where you want it to go -- has gotten distorted into a practice of only reporting the points-of-view that are already influential. Corporations have the wherewithal to put their ideas on the public agenda that the mainstream media reports. How do the views of ordinary people break into that league?
  • astro-turf. If you've got money, you can form "grass-root" organizations, create events for them, and get them on the news. Compare relatively equal coverage of a Tea Party rally of a few hundred at the Capitol with that of a pro-union rally of 100,000 in Madison. A few hundred union supporters might not even make the local news, not to mention Politico or CNN.
  • campaign finance. Every year it costs more to run for office. President Obama is planning to raise an unprecedented $1 billion for 2012. He can't possibly raise that as 50 million contributions of $20 each. But he'll need every penny when the Chamber of Commerce and their allies start spending against him. Corporations and billionaires have become the only conceivable source for the quantities of money needed to seek major offices.

Lawrence Lessig. The talk that pulled it all together was by one of my long-time heroes, Stanford law professor Lawrence Lessig. The 25-minute talk is already online. It focuses on clever graphics rather than Lessig as a talking head, so works as well online as it did live at the conference. I recommend watching it.

Lessig's career as an activist started with his opposition to the 1998 law granting a 20-year extension of existing copyrights. The motivation for the act was simple: Mickey Mouse was about to enter the public domain, soon to be followed by Superman and Batman.

Obviously, this mattered to Disney and Time-Warner. Just as obviously, extending the copyrights did nothing at all for the public. Copyrights are temporary government-granted monopolies that are supposed to encourage the production of creative works. But as Lessig puts it "Incentives are prospective. No matter what the U. S. Congress does, they cannot get George Gershwin to create anything more." Extending copyright also has increased the number of orphan works that are unavailable because they are neither in commercial distribution nor in the public domain.

Congress passed the extension unanimously.

Lessig connected this experience to what we've seen recently in Wall Street reform. After putting hundreds of billions into bailouts, the tax-payers have gotten no reform that will prevent similar disasters from happening again. The too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, and still only minimally regulated.

Or global warming. Big democratic majorities and a president supposedly committed to action produced nothing in the face of huge corporate spending. Or health-care reform, which had to placate insurance and drug-company interests, but not the large majorities of the public that favored a public option.

Every single issue you and I care about -- and not just you and I, people on the right too -- every single issue we care about is blocked by the same fundamental rot. … We won't get anything real from our government until we change this.

The fundamental problem, as Lessig describes it, is that Congress was designed to be dependent on the People, but instead it has become dependent on the Funders. But "the Funders are not the People." (It needs to be said.) Rather than quid-pro-quo corruption, members of Congress

develop a sixth sense as they increasingly begin to recognize how every single thing they do might or might not affect their ability to raise money, and they adjust themselves to make sure they don't reduce their ability to raise money.

This explains the kind of agenda-manipulation we see every day. Politicians don't often change their positions in exchange for campaign contributions. It's more subtle than that. They adjust the agenda so that questions that pit them against their potential funders never come up. Or, if they must come up, they appear as parts of large, seemingly inevitable compromises. So, for example, no one had to take a position on single-payer health care. There was no show-down vote on preserving the Bush tax cuts.

Similar processes are at work inside the corporate media. Overt censorship -- drop that story or be fired -- is very rare. But reporters know what will raise flak and what won't. They know what their editors will and won't support, what will and won't keep their sources happy, what paragraphs are likely to get cut and what stories are likely to make page 1. Like leaping dolphins, they very quickly get trained to produce what the system rewards rather than burn their energy working against it.

Peter, Paul, and Mary had it nailed in 1967:

But if I really say it,
the radio won't play it
unless I lay it between the lines

Root-striking. Lessig is pushing a campaign called Root Strikers. The initial purpose is simply to educate people to connect the dots, reframing every issue in terms of how it is changed by the influence of money on Congress.

I have no idea whether this will turn into something or not. I'll let you know.


At the conference I kept running into issues that used to be bipartisan, but have become partisan: net neutrality, global warming, campaign finance reform. In all of them, Republican support has vanished as industry deployed its resources.

Friday, after massive lobbying and other political expenses by telephone companies like AT&T,  the House voted to invalidate the FCC's already-watered-down protection of net neutrality on party lines: Republicans 234-2 against neutrality rules and Democrats 177-6 supporting them.


Economist Joseph Stiglitz (also at NCMR) has a current Vanity Fair article about the concentration of wealth and power.

It should not make jaws drop that a tax bill cannot emerge from Congress unless big tax cuts are put in place for the wealthy. Given the power of the top 1 percent, this is the way you would expect the system to work.


The Ryan Medical Plan

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan put out his long-term budget plan Tuesday, spelling out some of the ideas he's been suggesting in other forms for the last couple years. There's been a lot of extreme rhetoric for and against it, and particularly about what it does to Medicare and Medicaid. It's an extreme proposal, and at some point extreme rhetoric will be the appropriate response. But first let's try to understand the Ryan Plan calmly.

An analogy helps: Suppose I have a niece. (I don't.) Let's call her Jenny, and let's assume she has a serious health problem that her unemployed parents can't possibly pay for. Not wanting to see her die, I've been footing the bills for Jenny's treatment. I'm starting to go deeply into debt, and yet her treatments just get more and more expensive every year. Clearly, I'm headed towards bankruptcy.

I go to financial counselor Paul Ryan, who comes up with this plan: We figure out how much I can afford to spend on Jenny without going bankrupt, and we budget that I'm going to send her parents that much money each year, so that they can use it to pay for her treatments. Problem solved; I'm not going bankrupt any more.

I'm sure you see the difficulty: My potential bankruptcy is only one effect of the underlying problem, which we haven't solved at all. Jenny is still sick, the doctors still aren't going to treat her for free, and the cost of her treatment is still going up at the same rate. All I've done is detach my finances from that problem.

Now let's come out of the analogy and look at the country. The underlying problem is not fundamentally about government programs or taxes. It's about the cost of medical care. For a long time, the cost of medical care has been going up faster than anything else -- faster than inflation, faster than GDP, faster than government revenue.

By now, medical care is a huge expense for our economy. But the real problem is in the future: What if costs keep rising at this rate? Exponential growth will work its evil magic, and no matter how important you think medical care is, and no matter whether you imagine care being paid for by individuals, by private insurance, or by the government, at some point the money runs out. People will die even though we know how to save them, or they'll limp through life with disabilities that we know how to fix.

Up until now, government programs have been shielding individuals from the worst effects of that trend. We have Medicare for the old and Medicaid for the poor. When those programs are properly funded and working well, no one has to die just for lack of money. But as we look forward and imagine a continuing exponential growth in medical costs, at some point it overwhelms any tax rate and government bankruptcy looms.

So budget chair Ryan gives the government the same advice that financial counselor Ryan gives me in the analogy: Detach your finances from the increasing costs. Rather than pay for treatment, provide a fixed amount of money as a voucher to help people pay for private health insurance. Let that amount go up at a rate you find sustainable.

If you think the government deficit is the only problem here, then this is a great solution. But if you think the problem is that people are sick and we don't know how to pay for their treatment, that problem is untouched. The weight of it has just been shifted from the government to the individual.

The conservative response to this is that medical inflation will abate when government money is no longer fueling it. Or, saying the same thing another way, when people become desperate enough for cheap medical care, the market will provide it.

This strikes me as magical thinking: I want it to be true, therefore it is true. If you poke the idea even slightly, there is no depth to it. Market incentives for cheap medical care already exist. (Insurance companies could make lots of money if they could provide quality care more cheaply. Employers could cut costs by forcing their employees into those insurance programs.) So far, those incentives haven't produced results, and no one has put forward any economic model how the lower costs would come about.

And if they don't come about, people are going to die for lack of money.


On privatizing Medicare and Medicaid,  Matt Yglesias asks the right question: "Why would introducing a new layer of rent-seeking special interests reduce health care spending?"



Short Notes

The most fun part of the NCMR conference were the comedians. I've linked to Elon James White's This Week in Blackness series several times over the last couple years. But Erin Gibson and her Current TV series Infomania were new to me. Ditto Matthew Filipowicz, who has a great motive for starting his new talk show: "I know a lot of people who are smarter than I am, and I wanted to have a reason to talk to them."


While we're doing progressive comedy, sing along with Katie Goodman in "I Didn't F*ck It Up".


Glenn Beck is crawling back under the talk-radio rock that he wriggled out from. So I need to start drawing down my supply of Beck-skewering bookmarks: Mother Jones diagrams Glenn's brain. And Katie Goodman sings "Glenn Beck is Batshit Crazy". Jon Stewart also sees the end coming for his Beck impersonations. And Digby can't resist dancing on Beck's grave.


Republicans plan to seek new spending cuts next month when the national debt ceiling needs to be raised. But Matt Yglesias points out something significant: Threatening not to raise the debt ceiling (and send the U.S. government into default) is pure hostage-taking, not an alternate policy view.

If there’s some large block of members of congress who genuinely believe that failing to raise the debt ceiling is superior to raising the debt ceiling, then obviously it would make sense to negotiate with those people. But I don’t believe that there are any such people.


The effort to defund Planned Parenthood produced a lot of great responses: Erin Gibson's and Second City Network's were my favorites.


An Atlanta business owner repeats something New Hampshire businesspeople have told one of my friends:

Tax Cuts do not create jobs. Tax cuts adds profits into business owners pockets. If I get another 10% Tax cut, as the republicans are planning to push, lets say it moves and wins. If my current staff is can handle the volume, there is no incentive for me to hire new employees. That is the way it works.

As a former teen Objectivist myself, I understand that Randist philosophy is more than just an excuse to be a jerk. But if you already are a jerk, it's awfully convenient. Alyssa Bereznak illustrates in How Ayn Rand Ruined My Childhood.


In honor of Passover (coming up later this month), consider how Exodus would play out in the age of social media.



This Week's Challenge

As you listen to TV talking heads debate politics this week, remember to take a step back occasionally and ask yourself: What completely different solution would work well for ordinary people, but is off the table because everybody knows it's politically impractical? I'll start the bidding with single-payer health care. Any others?

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